Since the first reports of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, there has been intense interest in understanding how SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the human population. Recent debate has coalesced around two competing ideas: a “laboratory escape” scenario and zoonotic emergence. Here, we critically review the current scientific evidence that may help clarify the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Understanding how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in 2019 is critical to preventing future zoonotic outbreaks before they become the next pandemic. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, was identified as a likely source of cases in early reports, but later this conclusion became controversial. We show here that the earliest known COVID-19 cases from December 2019, including those without reported direct links, were geographically centered on this market. We report that live SARS-CoV-2–susceptible mammals were sold at the market in late 2019 and that within the market, SARS-CoV-2–positive environmental samples were spatially associated with vendors selling live mammals. Although there is insufficient evidence to define upstream events, and exact circumstances remain obscure, our analyses indicate that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 occurred through the live wildlife trade in China and show that the Huanan market was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emerging viruses threaten global health, but few experimental models can characterize the virus and host factors necessary for within- and cross-species transmission. Here, we leverage a model whereby pet store mice or rats—which harbor natural rodent pathogens—are cohoused with laboratory mice. This “dirty” mouse model offers a platform for studying acute transmission of viruses between and within hosts via natural mechanisms. We identified numerous viruses and other microbial species that transmit to cohoused mice, including prospective new members of the Coronaviridae, Astroviridae, Picornaviridae, and Narnaviridae families, and uncovered pathogen interactions that promote or prevent virus transmission. We also evaluated transmission dynamics of murine astroviruses during transmission and spread within a new host. Finally, by cohousing our laboratory mice with the bedding of pet store rats, we identified cross-species transmission of a rat astrovirus. Overall, this model system allows for the analysis of transmission of natural rodent viruses and is a platform to further characterize barriers to zoonosis.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is the third zoonotic coronavirus identified in the last 20 years. Enzootic and epizootic coronaviruses of diverse lineages also pose a significant threat to livestock, as most recently observed for virulent strains of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and swine acute diarrhea-associated coronavirus (SADS-CoV). Unique to RNA viruses, coronaviruses encode a proofreading exonuclease (ExoN) that lowers point mutation rates to increase the viability of large RNA virus genomes, which comes with the cost of limiting virus adaptation via point mutation. This limitation can be overcome by high rates of recombination that facilitate rapid increases in genetic diversification. To compare the dynamics of recombination between related sequences, we developed an open-source computational workflow (IDPlot) that bundles nucleotide identity, recombination, and phylogenetic analysis into a single pipeline. We analyzed recombination dynamics among three groups of coronaviruses with noteworthy impacts on human health and agriculture: SARSr-CoV, Betacoronavirus-1, and SADSr-CoV. We found that all three groups undergo recombination with highly diverged viruses from undersampled or unsampled lineages, including in typically highly conserved regions of the genome. In several cases, no parental origin of recombinant regions could be found in genetic databases, demonstrating our shallow characterization of coronavirus diversity and expanding the genetic pool that may contribute to future zoonotic events. Our results also illustrate the limitations of current sampling approaches for anticipating zoonotic threats to human and animal health.

Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) encoded by viruses are putatively acquired by horizontal transfer of cellular PDE ancestor genes. Viral PDEs inhibit the OAS-RNase L antiviral pathway, a key effector component of the innate immune response. Although the function of these proteins is well-characterized, the origins of these gene acquisitions are less clear. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least five independent PDE acquisition events by ancestral viruses. We found evidence that PDE-encoding genes were horizontally transferred between coronaviruses belonging to different genera. Three clades of viruses within Nidovirales : merbecoviruses (MERS-CoV), embecoviruses (HCoV-OC43), and toroviruses encode independently acquired PDEs, and a clade of rodent alphacoronaviruses acquired an embecovirus PDE via recent horizontal transfer. Among rotaviruses, the PDE of rotavirus A was acquired independently from rotavirus B and G PDEs, which share a common ancestor. Conserved motif analysis suggests a link between all viral PDEs and a similar ancestor among the mammalian AKAP7 proteins despite low levels of sequence conservation. Additionally, we used ancestral sequence reconstruction and structural modeling to reveal that sequence and structural divergence are not well-correlated among these proteins. Specifically, merbecovirus PDEs are as structurally divergent from the ancestral protein and the solved structure of human AKAP7 PDE as they are from each other. In contrast, comparisons of rotavirus B and G PDEs reveal virtually unchanged structures despite evidence for loss of function in one, suggesting impactful changes that lie outside conserved catalytic sites. These findings highlight the complex and volatile evolutionary history of viral PDEs and provide a framework to facilitate future studies.