Ageratum conyzoides L., an invasive plant originating from South America, is characterized by rapid growth and strong ecological adaptability, posing a threat to China's ecosystems, agricultural industry, and biodiversity. In this study, we optimized the MaxEnt model using the ENMeval package and constructed an ensemble model using the Biomod2 package based on global geospatial distribution data of A. conyzoides and considering climate, soil, and topography factors. We simulated the potential suitable distribution of A. conyzoides in China at present and in the future (2041–2060, 2061–2080). Through multivariate environment similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analysis, we identified the main environmental variables influencing the distribution of A. conyzoides. Additionally, niche analysis elucidated temporal and spatial variations in A. conyzoides' climate niche. Our results demonstrate that the ensemble model, constructed from the top seven single models, outperforms the individual models in predicting the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides. The ensemble model achieved the true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.833 and the area under the subject curve (AUC) of 0.971, indicative of outstanding predictive performance. Presently, the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides in China primarily exists in the region between 18° and 28° N, covering approximately 1.47 million km². The temperature annual range, precipitation of the wettest month, and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were identified as the primary environmental variables influencing its distribution, while soil and elevation variables had minor roles. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides is expected to expand northeastward, with the centroid of its habitat shifting northward as the climate warms. The migration speed of A. conyzoides is projected to increase with the degree of warming. Furthermore, the climate niche of A. conyzoides will undergo certain changes and may face both niche expansion and a decrease in niche overlap under different climate conditions.

Traditional evaluations of ecological restoration in mining lands have long been dominated by above ground vegetation metrics, such as coverage and community diversity. Yet in arid and semi-arid mining regions, soil hydrology recovery is key, as soil organic carbon (SOC) and bulk density (BD) are critical factors affecting soil hydrology. However, their thresholds for water holding capacity and infiltration remain unclear. Therefore, this study determined the SOC and BD thresholds and evaluated the hydrological trends across them. The study was in a Loess Plateau coal reclamation area. Five restoration types and one reference forest were selected, and soil samples were collected from the 0–10 cm layer. Redundancy analysis (RDA), partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS–SEM), and the threshold regression model were used for analysis. Results show the following: (1) Vegetation indirectly controls soil hydrology via soil structure and chemical properties (RDA: 76.04%). BD limited water holding capacity (path coefficient: −0.908), while chemical properties promoted infiltration (path coefficient: 0.397). (2) Soil hydrological recovery exhibits non-linear threshold responses. The SOC thresholds for water holding capacity and infiltration were 9.52 g/kg and 5.93 g/kg, respectively, while the BD thresholds were 0.93 g/cm³ and 1.03 g/cm³. The reclamation of soil hydrological functions in mining lands follows a two-stage mechanism. First, control by carbon accumulation, then follow by structural dominance. During the early stage, soil organic carbon (SOC) buildup quickly boosts hydrological performance by promoting aggregate formation. However, once the system nears its functional threshold, simply adding more carbon gives limited returns. At this stage, breaking through physical constraints becomes vital to overcoming the bottleneck. Above-ground metrics alone cannot capture below-ground ecosystem functional trajectories. Consequently, a dynamic strategy centered on SOC and BD is proposed.