This study proposes an improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis by investigating the relationship between flood peak and flood volume, using the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), China, as verification. Firstly, the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used as the prior distribution. Then, under the Bayesian theory, the prior distribution was updated using the conditional distribution, which is derived from copula function. The results show that the improvement of the proposed model is significant compared with the GAMLSS-based prior distribution. Meanwhile, selection of a suitable prior distribution has a significant effect on the results of improvement. For implications to the TGD, the nonstationary model can obviously increase the engineering management benefits and reduce the perceived risks of large floods. This study provides guidance for the dynamic management of hydraulic engineering under nonstationary conditions.
15 July 2021 in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment