This paper explores the environmental impacts of retaining or replacing buildings by extending the consequential replacement framework (CRF) for life-cycle assessment (LCA) from individual buildings towards the urban scale. It addresses a gap in previous studies by examining the broader consequences of building-level retention or replacement decisions in the built environment, namely greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from associated infrastructure construction. The case study, which is located in Finland, investigates alternative ways to densify a growing city, some of which can be achieved within the urban structure, while others require greenfield construction elsewhere in the city. The results reveal that refurbishing and extending already existing buildings is worthwhile in terms of GHG emissions, even if some of the additional floor area targeted in densification were to be built on a greenfield site. After 50 years, the accumulated GHG emissions of scenarios that develop existing buildings are 0.2–12% less than those from replacement scenarios, depending on whether the targeted densification is minor or major and the amount of infrastructure construction involved. This is primarily due to the 11–35% smaller upfront embodied GHG emissions of refurbishment compared with new construction—which 50 years do not offset. Policy relevance This paper reinforces the notion from previous research that developing the existing building stock holds major emission-savings potential, even more so than replacement with energy-efficient new build. It highlights the potential contribution of existing building stocks in low-emission city development, even in growing city contexts. The case study results challenge the common belief in urban planning that if replacement involves densification, it must be a more low-emission alternative than retention, and conversely, if retention leads to greenfield construction, it must be higher in emissions than replacement. Low-emission urban planning should base its conclusions on urban LCA. This paper introduces an infrastructure-extended CRF that accounts for building retention and replacement scenarios, ensuring methodological robustness. The approach is essential for policymakers to base their decisions on evidence and prioritise low-emission development alternatives. Which policymakers hold power over such decisions and which instruments are suitable to pursue these goals depend on the context.

It has been shown in previous studies that the existing precast concrete element building stock in Finland has quality issues, especially with freeze-thaw durability and reinforcement corrosion. In addition, it has been presented that deterioration rate is the fastest in coastal area and decreases towards north which has been supposed to be a reason of lower amount of wind-driven rain (WDR). The aim of this study was to examine the connection between the amount of WDR on structures and the freeze-thaw damage more comprehensively. Condition investigation reports of 472 precast concrete element buildings were reanalysed to study the relation and the results were compared to climate data of the same time period to study the correlation between condition investigation observations and the amount of WDR. In addition, the observations made in a condition investigations and their relation to climate load at the same building were studied as a case study. The results show that there is a significant connection between the WDR related climate load and the freeze-thaw damage occurrence. The results can be used to plan protective methods and be a base for service life estimations.