This study was conducted to evaluate the variability, trends, volatility, and transition patterns of rainfall in drought-prone northwest Bangladesh. Daily rainfall recorded at five stations for the period 1959–2018 were used for this purpose. Non-parametric tests of variability changes, a modified Mann–Kendall trend test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)–jump model, and a Markov chain (MC) were used to assess the variability changes, trends, volatility, and transitions in rainfall to understand the possibility of the persistence of droughts and their predictability. The results showed an overall decrease of variability in annual and seasonal rainfall, but an increase in mean pre-monsoon rainfall and a decrease in mean monsoon rainfall. This caused a decrease in pre-monsoon droughts, but few changes in monsoon droughts. The ITA and rainfall anomaly analysis revealed high temporal variability and, thus, rapid shifts in rainfall regimes, which were also supported by the volatility dynamics and time-varying jumps from the GARCH–jump model and the rapid changes in drought index from the MC analysis. Therefore, the lack of drought in recent years cannot be considered as an indicator of declining droughts in the region.

Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in the overall development of a country. This study utilizes four dimensions related to women empowerment for calculating an empowerment index, as no specific concept of women empowerment exists in the datasets (BDHS 2017-18 and BDHS 2022). The bivariate analysis was performed to investigate the percentage distribution of the Women Empowerment Index (WEI), constructed with the association of the dimensions, with various covariates. The ANOVA F-test and Pearson Chi-Square test are applied for finding the adjusted association between selected dimensions and covariates in the study years. Covariates with a p-value less than 0.05 in both study years are incorporated in the multivariate regression models. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to determine the adjusted effects of selected covariates on women's empowerment, as the empowerment index is an ordinal response variable. An ordinal probit model was tested to understand the likelihood of the categories being employed in the empowerment of women. Both the models were tested to be a good and adequate fit. Overall, the women empowerment rate has seen a decrease throughout the consecutive study years. Though, the number of less empowered women has decreased, the amount of empowered women has also seen a little bit of downfall in Bangladesh. Some recommendations were specified based on the results for enhancing women empowerment in our country.