Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961–1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

There is an urgent need to develop strategic spatial planning methods adapted to the conditions of countries with weak planning systems facing rapid urbanization. These methods should allow evaluating the territorial qualities of the system of cities and to meaningfully guiding the implementation of national urban policies or strategies. In this context, the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UNHabitat) has developed the Spatial Development Framework (SDF) method, which is presented here for the first time, after having been tested in different countries. The SDF method helps to develop an understanding of the roles and inter-linkages of various urban settlements in the territory and to frame the territorial structure in a context of fluidity and uncertainty typical of countries facing uncontrolled urbanization. The method is then discussed and conclusions for the way forward are drawn.

Use of decision support systems (DSS) has thus far been framed as a social process of adoption or technical process of usability. We analyze the development of a DSS as a process of institutionalization of new as well as drift of existing practices. We write an Actor-Network-Theory (ANT) account, i.e. an interpretive study, that follows the traces left by both human and non-human actors (e.g. technology, methodologies, etc.) to understand how a DSS development project institutionalizes DSS technology in several forest management organizations in the German state of Rheinland Pfalz. The research has an innovative value since it uses ANT in the design of a DSS, hence affecting it, while commonly ANT has been used to understand why networks work or do not. Moreover, we use a new technology (PREZI^TM, www.prezi.com) for the visualization of the whole actor network coherent to the ANT methodology, i.e. “keeping the social flat.” As a result, the development of the ANT account proposed in the present paper, even if still partial, supports the design of new technologies being introduced in current practice and generates an important learning effect thanks to the underpinning interpretative approach.

Information helps decision makers to address and to decide about environmental problems. In the context of climate change adaptation, often knowledge is missing on how the available information from impact models affects the decision-making process. The main aim of this study was to explore the extent of ambiguity and how new climate change information influenced decision of forest planners. We investigated changes in decisions of planners about forestry actions representing species choice and forest tourism and expiry dates of these actions leading to environmental constraints in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest planners evaluated expiry dates using four forest ecosystem services: forest production, stand yield class, sequestered carbon, and potential tourism. Data were collected during workshops with eleven forest planners from three forest districts in Scotland. Presented climate change information modified the understanding and frames of planners about forestry actions assessed with accompanying expiry dates. Changes in the frames of planners often result in both earlier and later expiry dates. Ambiguity of planners was found to be dependent on diversity in frames and difficulty in evaluating multiple ecosystem services. These findings imply that due to ambiguity forest planners might find it hard to choose climate change adaptation measures and researchers can struggle to convince planners with new research findings.