Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km²) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

The 2023 wildfire season in Québec set records due to extreme warm and dry conditions, burning 4.5 million hectares and indicating persistent and escalating impacts associated with climate change. This study reviews the unusual weather conditions that led to the fires, discussing their extensive impacts on the forest sector, fire management, boreal caribou habitats, and particularly the profound effects on First Nation communities. The wildfires led to significant declines in forest productivity and timber supply, overwhelming fire management resources, and necessitating widespread evacuations. First Nation territories were dramatically altered, facing severe air quality issues and disruptions. While caribou impacts were modest across the province, the broader ecological, economical, and social repercussions were considerable. To mitigate future extreme wildfire seasons, the study suggests changes in forest management practices to increase forest resilience and resistance, adapting industrial structures to changes in wood type harvested, and enhancing fire suppression and risk management strategies. It calls for a comprehensive, unified approach to risk management that incorporates the lessons learned from the 2023 fire season and accounts for ongoing climate change. The study underscores the urgent need for detailed planning and proactive measures to reduce the growing risks and impacts of wildfires in a changing climate.

The increasing effects of climate and global change oblige ecosystem-based management to adapt forestry practices to deal with uncertainties. Here we provide an overview to identify the challenges facing the boreal forest under projected future change, including altered natural disturbance regimes, biodiversity loss, increased forest fragmentation, the rapid loss of old-growth forests, and the need to develop novel silvicultural approaches. We specifically address subjects previously lacking from the ecosystem-based management framework, e.g., Indigenous communities, social concerns, ecological restoration, and impacts on aquatic ecosystems. We conclude by providing recommendations for ensuring the successful long-term management of the boreal biome facing climate change.

Warning: This article contains terms, descriptions, and opinions used for historical context that may be culturally sensitive for some readers. Background: Understanding drivers of boreal forest dynamics supports adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. Aims: We aimed to understand how burn rates varied since the early 1700s in North American boreal forests. Methods: We used 16 fire-history study sites distributed across such forests and investigated variation in burn rates for the historical period spanning 1700–1990. These were benchmarked against recent burn rates estimated for the modern period spanning 1980–2020 using various data sources. Key results: Burn rates during the historical period for most sites showed a declining trend, particularly during the early to mid 1900s. Compared to the historical period, the modern period showed less variable and lower burn rates across sites. Mean burn rates during the modern period presented divergent trends among eastern versus northwestern sites, with increasing trends in mean burn rates in most northwestern North American sites. Conclusions: The synchronicity of trends suggests that large spatial patterns of atmospheric conditions drove burn rates in addition to regional changes in land use like fire exclusion and suppression. Implications: Low burn rates in eastern Canadian boreal forests may continue unless climate change overrides the capacity to suppress fire.