Serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) is emerging as an important biomarker in multiple sclerosis (MS). Our objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of serum NfL levels obtained close to the time of MS onset with long-term clinical outcomes. In this prospective cohort study, we identified patients with serum collected within 5 years of first MS symptom onset (baseline) with more than 15 years of routine clinical follow-up. Levels of serum NfL were quantified in patients and matched controls using digital immunoassay (SiMoA HD-1 Analyzer, Quanterix). Sixty-seven patients had a median follow-up of 18.9 years (range 15.0–27.0). The median serum NfL level in patient baseline samples was 10.1 pg/mL, 38.5% higher than median levels in 37 controls (7.26 pg/mL, p = 0.004). Baseline NfL level was most helpful as a sensitive predictive marker to rule out progression; patients with levels less 7.62 pg/mL were 4.3 times less likely to develop an EDSS score of ≥ 4 (p = 0.001) and 7.1 times less likely to develop progressive MS (p = 0.054). Patients with the highest NfL levels (3rd-tertile, > 13.2 pg/mL) progressed most rapidly with an EDSS annual rate of 0.16 (p = 0.004), remaining significant after adjustment for sex, age, and disease-modifying treatment (p = 0.022). This study demonstrates that baseline sNfL is associated with long term clinical disease progression. sNfL may be a sensitive marker of subsequent poor clinical outcomes.

Blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a marker of neuro-axonal injury showing promising associations with outcomes of interest in several neurological conditions. Although initially discovered and investigated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), the recent development of ultrasensitive digital immunoassay technologies has enabled reliable detection in serum/plasma, obviating the need for invasive lumbar punctures for longitudinal assessment. The most evidence for utility relates to multiple sclerosis (MS) where it serves as an objective measure of both the inflammatory and degenerative pathologies that characterise this disease. In this review, we summarise the physiology and pathophysiology of neurofilaments before focusing on the technological advancements that have enabled reliable quantification of NfL in blood. As the test case for clinical translation, we then highlight important recent developments linking blood NfL levels to outcomes in MS and the next steps to be overcome before this test is adopted on a routine clinical basis.

Measurement of serum neurofilament light chain concentration (sNfL) promises to become a convenient, cost effective and meaningful adjunct for multiple sclerosis (MS) prognostication as well as monitoring disease activity in response to treatment. Despite the remarkable progress and an ever-increasing literature supporting the potential role of sNfL in MS over the last 5 years, a number of hurdles remain before this test can be integrated into routine clinical practice. In this review we highlight these hurdles, broadly classified by concerns relating to clinical validity and analytical validity. After setting out an aspirational roadmap as to how many of these issues can be overcome, we conclude by sharing our vision of the current and future role of sNfL assays in MS clinical practice.

One-off serum levels of neurofilament light chain (sNfL) is an established predictor of emerging disease activity in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the importance of longitudinal increases in sNfL is yet to be enumerated, an important consideration as this test is translated for serial monitoring. Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (sGFAP) is another biomarker of predictive interest. Our objective was to assess the association between longitudinal changes sNfL and prediction of future relapses, as well as a possible role for sGFAP. Participants with active MS were prospectively monitored for one year as part of a clinical trial testing mesenchymal stem cells. Visits every three months or less included clinical assessments, MRI scans and serum draws. sNfL and sGFAP concentrations were quantified with Single Molecule Array immunoassay. We used Kaplan-Meier estimates and Anderson-Gill Cox regression models with and without adjustment for age, sex, disease subtype, disease duration and expanded disability status score (EDSS) to estimate the rate of relapse predicted by baseline and longitudinal changes in biomarker. 58 Canadian and Italian participants with MS were enrolled in this study. Higher baseline sNfL was future relapse (Log-rank p = 0.0068), MRI lesions (p=0.0096), composite-relapse associated worsening (p=0.01) and progression independent of relapse activity (p=0.0096). Conversely, baseline sGFAP was only weakly associated with MRI lesions (0.044). Cross-sectional analyses of baseline sNfL revealed that a two-fold difference in baseline sNfL, e.g. from 10 to 20 pg/mL, was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk of relapse during follow-up (95% confidence interval 1.65-3.17). Longitudinally, a two-fold increase in sNfL level from the first measurement was associated with an additional 1.46 times increased risk of relapse (1.07-2.00). The impact of longitudinal increases in sNfL on the risk of relapse were most pronounced for patients with lower baseline values of sNfL (<10 pg/mL: HR = 1.54, 1.06-2.24). These associations remained significant after adjustment for potential confounders. We enumerate the risk of relapse associated with dynamic changes in sNfL. Both baseline and longitudinal change in sNfL may help identify patients who would benefit from early treatment optimisation. Canada:NCT02239393, Italy:NCT01854957&EudraCT, 2011-001295-19 CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides class 1 evidence that high baseline and longitudinal increases in sNfL are predictive of impending relapses in patients with active MS.

A simple blood-derived biomarker is desirable in the routine management of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) is the most promising candidate. Although its utility was first shown in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), technological advancements have enabled reliable detection in serum and less frequently plasma, obviating the need for repeated lumbar punctures. In this review, after defining the knowledge gap in MS management that many hope sNfL could fill, we summarize salient studies demonstrating associations of sNfL levels with outcomes of interest. We group these outcomes into inflammatory activity, progression, treatment response, and prediction/prognosis. Where possible we focus on data from real-world perspective observational cohorts. While acknowledging the limitations of sNfL and highlighting key areas for ongoing work, we conclude with our opinion of the role for sNfL as an objective, convenient, and cost-effective adjunct to clinical assessment. Paving the way for other promising biomarkers both blood-derived and otherwise, sNfL is an incremental step toward precision medicine for MS patients.

Objective To evaluate neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels in serum and CSF of patients with aggressive MS pre- and post-treatment with immunoablation followed by autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (IAHSCT) and examine associations with clinical and MRI outcomes. Methods Paired serum and CSF in addition to MRI and clinical measures were collected on 23 patients with MS at baseline and 1 and 3 years post-IAHSCT. An additional 33 sera and CSF pairs were taken from noninflammatory neurologic controls. NfL levels were quantitated using the Simoa platform (Quanterix). Results Baseline MS NfL levels were significantly elevated relative to controls in serum (p = 0.001) and CSF (p = 0.001). Following IAHSCT, high pretreatment NfL levels significantly reduced in serum (p = 0.0023) and CSF (p = 0.0068) and were not significantly different from controls. Serum and CSF NfL levels highly correlated (r = 0.81, p < 0.0001). Baseline NfL levels were associated with worse pretreatment disease measures (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS], relapses, MRI lesions, and MR spectroscopy (MRS) N-acetylaspartate/creatine). Elevated baseline NfL levels were associated with persistently worse indices of disease burden post-IAHSCT (sustained EDSS progression, cognition, quality of life, T1 and T2 lesion volumes, MRS, and brain atrophy). Conclusion These data substantiate that serum and CSF NfL levels reflect disease severity and treatment response in patients with MS and may therefore be a useful biomarker. Baseline serum levels associated with markers of pretreatment disease severity and post-treatment outcomes. Classification of evidence This study provides Class II evidence that for patients with aggressive MS, serum NfL levels are associated with disease severity.