Persistent contrails and contrail cirrus are responsible for a large part of aviation induced radiative forcing. A considerable fraction of their warming effect could be eliminated by diverting only a quite small fraction of flight paths, namely those that produce the highest individual radiative forcing (iRF). In order to make this a viable mitigation strategy it is necessary that aviation weather forecast is able to predict (i) when and where contrails are formed, (ii) which of these are persistent, and (iii) how large the iRF of those contrails would be. Here we study several data bases together with weather data in order to see whether such a forecast would currently be possible. It turns out that the formation of contrails can be predicted with some success, but there are problems to predict contrail persistence. The underlying reason for this is that while the temperature field is quite good in weather prediction and climate simulations with specified dynamics, this is not so for the relative humidity in general and for ice supersaturation in particular. However we find that the weather model shows the dynamical peculiarities that are expected for ice supersaturated regions where strong contrails are indeed found in satellite data. This justifies some hope that the prediction of strong contrails may be possible via general regression involving the dynamical state of the ambient atmosphere.

Box model simulations of an uplifting and adiabatically cooling cloud of aerosol have been performed in order to study the transition between cirrus formation dominated by homogeneous nucleation of ice to that dominated by heterogeneous nucleation. The aerosol was assumed to consist of an internal mixture of sulfuric acid solution droplets with inclusions of soot. The parametrisation of De Mott et al. (1997) was used to simulate the heterogeneous nucleation of ice in such droplets with soot inclusions. The simulations show that the transition from heterogeneous to homogeneous nucleation occurs over a narrow range of soot concentration. Thus it seems to be possible to fix critical concentrations of heterogeneous ice nuclei which must be exceeded if heterogeneous freezing dominates cirrus formation. A formula has been derived that allows to compute the critical concentrations of heterogeneous ice nuclei as a function of temperature, updraft speed, ambient pressure, and supersaturation at which heterogeneous freezing occurs. Generally, homogeneous nucleation dominates in regions with updrafts stronger than 20 cm s ^-1, with the exception of heavily polluted areas which could be common in the northern hemisphere due to air traffic, where updrafts of the order 1 m s^-1 may be necessary to render heterogeneous nucleation unimportant. According to the present results it cannot be excluded that heterogeneous nucleation plays a more important role for cirrus formation in the northern midlatitudes than anywhere else. A possible consequence of these results is that air pollution may lead to a higher coverage of cirrus clouds, but then these clouds will be optically thinner than clouds formed by homogeneous freezing, with the exception of regions where condensation trails are frequent.

The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NO_x emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NO_x is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO₂ effects compensate the reduced warming from CO₂ savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO₂ aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO₂ effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.

A review is given of various contrail avoidance strategies that have been developed since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. The goal of this review is to provide an overview of the various options for contrail mitigation, to describe the state of the art, and to indicate future directions for research

The theory of contrail formation for fuel cells is derived. It is a variant of the well-known Schmidt-Appleman theory. The contrail factor or G-factor for fuel cells is much larger than for jet engines, such that condensation of the exhaust water vapour can happen even at the Earth’s surface in sufficiently cold (a few degrees above zero) weather. Contrail formation from fuel cells will occur frequently in the lower troposphere and is unavoidable below moderate temperature limits, in the upper troposphere and in the stratosphere. Despite the high frequency of contrail formation from fuel cells, their climate impact is lower than that of contrails from jet engines. Most fuel cell contrails will be short and those persistent ones will be optically thinner and have on average a shorter lifetime than traditional persistent contrails. From a climate point of view, the introduction of fuel cells into aviation can be recommended.

The total aviation effective radiative forcing is dominated by non-CO₂ effects. The largest contributors to the non-CO₂ effects are contrails and contrail cirrus. There is the possibility of reducing the climate effect of aviation by avoiding flying through ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs), where contrails can last for hours (so-called persistent contrails). Therefore, a precise prediction of the specific location and time of these regions is needed. But a prediction of the frequency and degree of ice supersaturation (ISS) on cruise altitudes is currently very challenging and associated with great uncertainties because of the strong variability in the water vapour field, the low number of humidity measurements at the air traffic altitude, and the oversimplified parameterisations of cloud physics in weather models. Since ISS is more common in some dynamical regimes than in others, the aim of this study is to find variables/proxies that are related to the formation of ISSRs and to use these in a regression method to predict persistent contrails. To find the best-suited proxies for regressions, we use various methods of information theory. These include the log-likelihood ratios, known from Bayes' theorem, a modified form of the Kullback–Leibler divergence, and mutual information. The variables (the relative humidity with respect to ice, RHi_ERA5; the temperature, T; the vertical velocity, ω; the divergence, DIV; the relative vorticity, ζ; the potential vorticity, PV; the normalised geopotential height, Z; and the local lapse rate, γ) come from ERA5, and RH$i_{\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{I}}$ , which we assume as the truth, comes from MOZAIC/IAGOS (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus In-service Aircraft/In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; commercial aircraft measurements). It turns out that RHi_ERA5 is the most important predictor of ice supersaturation, in spite of its weaknesses, and all other variables do not help much to achieve better results. Without RHi_ERA5, a regression to predict ISSRs is not successful. Certain modifications of RHi_ERA5 before the regression (as suggested in recent papers) do not lead to improvements of ISSR prediction. Applying a sensitivity study with artificially modified RHi_ERA5 distributions points to the origin of the problems with the regression: the conditional distributions of RHi_ERA5 (conditioned on ISS and non-ISS, from RH$i_{\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{I}}$ ) overlap too heavily in the range of 70 %–100 %, so for any case in that range, it is not clear whether it belongs to an ISSR or not. Evidently, this renders the prediction of contrail persistence very difficult.