Permafrost covers a quarter of the northern hemisphere land surface and contains twice the amount of carbon that is currently present in the atmosphere. Future climate change is expected to reduce its near-surface cover by over 90% by the end of the 21st century, leading to thermokarst lake formation. Thermokarst lakes are point sources of carbon dioxide and methane which release long-term carbon stocks into the atmosphere, thereby initiating a positive climate feedback potentially contributing up to a 0.39°C rise of surface air temperatures by 2300. This review describes the potential role of thermokarst lakes in a warming world and the microbial mechanisms that underlie their contributions to the global greenhouse gas budget.

The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post‐thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw‐mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well‐suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high‐disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post‐thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower‐intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post‐thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Methanogenic archaea are important for the global greenhouse gas budget since they produce methane under anoxic conditions in numerous natural environments such as oceans, estuaries, soils and lakes. Whether and how environmental change will propagate into methanogenic assemblages of natural environments remains largely unknown owing to a poor understanding of global distribution patterns and environmental drivers of this specific group of microorganisms. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis targeting the biogeographic patterns and environmental controls of methanogenic communities using 94 public mcrA gene datasets. We show a global pattern of methanogenic archaea that is more associated with habitat filtering than with geographical dispersal. We identify salinity as the control on methanogenic community composition at global scale whereas pH and temperature are the major controls in nonsaline soils and lakes. The importance of salinity for structuring methanogenic community composition is also reflected in the biogeography of methanogenic lineages and the physiological properties of methanogenic isolates. Linking methanogenic alpha-diversity with reported values of methane emission identifies estuaries as the most diverse methanogenic habitats with however, minor contribution to the global methane budget. With salinity, temperature and pH our study identifies environmental drivers of methanogenic community composition facing drastic changes in many natural environments at the moment. However, consequences of this for the production of methane remain elusive owing to a lack of studies that combine methane production rate with community analysis.