Lyme disease is a rapidly growing illness that remains poorly understood within the medical community. Critical questions about when and why patients respond to treatment or stay ill, what kinds of treatments are effective, and even how to properly diagnose the disease remain largely unanswered. We investigate these questions by applying machine learning techniques to a large scale Lyme disease patient registry, MyLymeData, developed by the nonprofit LymeDisease.org. We apply various machine learning methods in order to measure the effect of individual features in predicting participants’ answers to the Global Rating of Change (GROC) survey questions that assess the self-reported degree to which their condition improved, worsened, or remained unchanged following antibiotic treatment. We use basic linear regression, support vector machines, neural networks, entropy-based decision tree models, and k-nearest neighbors approaches. We first analyze the general performance of the model and then identify the most important features for predicting participant answers to GROC. After we identify the “key” features, we separate them from the dataset and demonstrate the effectiveness of these features at identifying GROC. In doing so, we highlight possible directions for future study both mathematically and clinically.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding treatment of Lyme disease patients who do not respond fully to initial short-term antibiotic therapy. Choosing the best treatment approach and duration remains challenging because treatment response among these patients varies: some patients improve with treatment while others do not. A previous study examined treatment response variation in a sample of over 3500 patients enrolled in the MyLymeData patient registry developed by LymeDisease.org (San Ramon, CA, USA). That study used a validated Global Rating of Change (GROC) scale to identify three treatment response subgroups among Lyme disease patients who remained ill: nonresponders, low responders, and high responders. The present study first characterizes the health status, symptom severity, and percentage of treatment response across these three patient subgroups together with a fourth subgroup, patients who identify as well. We then employed machine learning techniques across these subgroups to determine features most closely associated with improved patient outcomes, and we used traditional statistical techniques to examine how these features relate to treatment response of the four groups. High treatment response was most closely associated with (1) the use of antibiotics or a combination of antibiotics and alternative treatments, (2) longer duration of treatment, and (3) oversight by a clinician whose practice focused on the treatment of tick-borne diseases.

The California Innocence Project (CIP), a clinical law school program aiming to free wrongfully convicted prisoners, evaluates thousands of mails containing new requests for assistance and corresponding case files. Processing and interpreting this large amount of information presents a significant challenge for CIP officials, which can be successfully aided by topic modeling techniques.In this paper, we apply Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method and implement various offshoots of it to the important and previously unstudied data set compiled by CIP. We identify underlying topics of existing case files and classify request files by crime type and case status (decision type). The results uncover the semantic structure of current case files and can provide CIP officials with a general understanding of newly received case files before further examinations. We also provide an exposition of popular variants of NMF with their experimental results and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of each variant through the real-world application.