The Upper Trinity River Basin (TRB) is the most populated river basin and one of the largest water suppliers in Texas. However, sediment and nutrient loads are reducing the capacity of reservoirs and degrading water quality. The objectives of this study are to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for ten study watersheds within the Upper TRB in order to assess nutrient loads into major reservoirs in the basin and to predict the effects of point source elimination and urbanization on nutrient loads through scenario analyses. SWAT performed reasonably well for the current condition except for two out of five tributaries in the Eagle Mountain watershed and total phosphorous OPEN ACCESS Water 2015, 7 5690 in Richland-Chambers. The impacts of simulated scenarios varied within watersheds. Point-source elimination achieved reductions ranging from 0.3% to 24% in total phosphorus and 1% to 56% in total nitrogen received by the reservoirs. Population and development projections were used to examine the impacts of urbanization on each watershed. Projected urbanization in 2030 had large effects on simulated total phosphorus loads in some watersheds, ranging from a reduction of 1% to an increase of 111%. Projected urbanization also affected simulated total nitrogen loads, from a reduction of 3% to an increase of 24%. One limitation of this study is the lack of long-term, up-to-date water quality data due to discontinued water-quality monitoring stations. Although careful considerations were given to the adjustment of parameter values reflecting various aspects of the nutrient processes, further data collection will enhance modeling study for assessment of these watersheds’ water resources and environmental problem.

The effects of soil erosion and sedimentation are important for natural resources conservation planning. However, although tremendous resources have been invested in developing more erosion models, the prevailing modeling studies are relying on a single model due to various reasons. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) provides multiple water erosion equations. This study tests and evaluates the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme on sediment predictions based on four water erosion methods in the APEX model using data from two watersheds. The APEX hydrology and soil erosion and sedimentation components were calibrated simultaneously using the APEX autocalibration tool APEX-CUTE. The BMA scheme is employed to obtain consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures. Simulated monthly flow was satisfactory for both the calibration and validation periods, with BMA resulting in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values from 0.56 to 0.87 and percent bias (PBIAS) within $\pm 17\%$ . No individual soil erosion method in APEX is consistently outperformed other method over the entire sediment yield regimes at both watersheds. The BMA scheme led to improved predictions compared with individual methods and resulted in satisfactory performance statistics (NSE from 0.55 to 0.88) for both the calibration and validation periods based on the optimal solutions. BMA also led to relatively higher Brier scores and narrower prediction bounds than individual methods. The methodology is unrestrictedly general and can be applied to any other combination of models in the environmental sciences.