Scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes for the period 2071–2100 under the A2 and B2 Special Report on Emissions scenarios are examined using the Hadley Centre Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies regional climate model. The model simulates ‘present‐day’ (1979–1990) rainfall and temperature climatologies reasonably well, capturing the characteristic bimodality of Caribbean rainfall and the boreal summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. Seasonal spatial patterns are also reproduced, but rainfall amounts are underestimated over the northern Caribbean island masses, including Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Temperatures over the region are also overestimated by 1–3 °C. For the period 2071–2100, temperatures are projected to increase across the region by 1–4 °C for all months irrespective of the scenario. The rainfall response varies with season with one of the more robust changes being an intensification of a gradient pattern in November–January, in which the northern Caribbean (i.e. north of 22°N) gets wetter and the southern Caribbean gets drier. There is also a robust June–October drying signal. The results point to changes in the regional circulation patterns due to the human‐induced climate change and warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) is shown to be a real and dominant climatological feature of the early summer Caribbean climate. It manifests as an intensification in the trade winds in the western Caribbean basin (70°W–80°W) with an east‐west axis along 15°N. It is confined to heights below 600 mb and has maximum wind speeds approaching 16 m/s near the surface. The study shows that there is variability in the strength and zonal extent of the CLLJ which can be related to zonal SST gradients between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the north tropical and/or equatorial Atlantic. When the gradient is driven by the Pacific (as in an EL Niño event) the CLLJ winds are intensified to the north and in its southwesternmost quadrant. When the winds are driven by the tropical north Atlantic there is uniform wind intensification about the jet axis. The CLLJ is also linked to a precipitation maximum over the near waters and along the Caribbean coast of Central America (up to 16°N) during June and more so, in July. There is evidence of variation at the northern extent of this wet zone depending on the ocean basin forcing the SST gradient. The CLLJ is also linked to moderate drying in the main Caribbean basin. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end‐of‐century (2071–2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra‐American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid‐summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present‐day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present‐day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of accuracy across regions, even when they are developed at relatively high resolution or using sophisticated procedures. The performance of 16 GPP are evaluated over the Caribbean region, which includes the Caribbean Islands, and portions of Central South America. Monthly data for sixty weather stations are used as a reference for the period 1983–2010. The 16 GPP include six products based on station data only, two that combine ground station and satellite information, two merging station and reanalysis information, four based on reanalysis, and two using multisource information. The temporal resolution of the GPP ranged between daily and monthly and spatial resolution from 0.033° to 0.5°. The methodological approach employed combined a comparison of regional and sub-regional precipitation annual cycles, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) index, as well as several metrics derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Overall, the best performances were obtained from GPCC025 and MSWEP2, likely reflecting the positive impact of the large number of station data utilized in their development. It is also demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution does not always mean better accuracy. There is a need for this kind of assessment when undertaking climate studies in regions like the Caribbean where resolution is a significant consideration. ERA5 performed best among the reanalyses analyzed and has the potential to be used to develop regionally based GPP by applying bias correction or downscaling techniques. The methodological approach employed provides a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of GPP in the Caribbean region.

Singular value decomposition (SVD) techniques are used to deduce a relationship between rainfall over the Caribbean basin and oppositely signed sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic. The analysis is done for four 3 month seasons. The first two seasons: November–January (NDJ) and February–April (FMA) encompass the Caribbean dry period, and the other two, May–July (MJJ) and August–October (ASO), include the early and late Caribbean rainy seasons. The first SVD mode for all seasons represents variability due to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) and, with the exception of the later wet season, the second SVD mode represents variability due to tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. ENSO has the greatest impact during the late rainfall season (ASO) and the early dry season (NDJ), whereas the tropical Atlantic controls variability in the early rainfall season (MJJ). The configuration of concurrent but oppositely signed sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins is only associated with rainfall modification in the late Caribbean rainfall season (ASO) and the early Caribbean dry season (NDJ). Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society