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Giovanni Sebastiani
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø, H. Hansens veg 18, 9019 Tromsø, Norway

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Editorial
Published: 29 June 2021 in Viruses
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The estimated smooth curve of the percentage of subjects positive to SARS-CoV-2 started decreasing in Italy at the beginning of January 2021, due to the government containment measures undertaken from Christmas until 7 January. Approximately two weeks after releasing the measures, the curve stopped to decrease and remained approximately constant for four weeks to increase again in the middle of February. This epidemic phase had a public health care impact since, from the beginning of the fourth week of February, the curve of the intensive care unit’s occupancy started to grow. This wave of infection was characterized by the presence of new virus variants, with a higher than 80% dominance of the so-called “English” variant, since 15 April. School activities in Italy started at different times from 7 January until 8 February, depending on every region’s decision. Our present data on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups in Italy are in agreement with literature reports showing that subjects older than 10 years are involved in virus transmission. More importantly, we provide evidence to support the hypothesis that also individuals of age 0–9 years can significantly contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

ACS Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. COVID-19 Pandemic: Influence of Schools, Age Groups, and Virus Variants in Italy. Viruses 2021, 13, 1269 .

AMA Style

Giovanni Sebastiani, Giorgio Palù. COVID-19 Pandemic: Influence of Schools, Age Groups, and Virus Variants in Italy. Viruses. 2021; 13 (7):1269.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic: Influence of Schools, Age Groups, and Virus Variants in Italy." Viruses 13, no. 7: 1269.

Journal article
Published: 11 March 2021 in Viruses
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(1) Background: A better understanding of COVID-19 dynamics in terms of interactions among individuals would be of paramount importance to increase the effectiveness of containment measures. Despite this, the research lacks spatiotemporal statistical and mathematical analysis based on large datasets. We describe a novel methodology to extract useful spatiotemporal information from COVID-19 pandemic data. (2) Methods: We perform specific analyses based on mathematical and statistical tools, like mathematical morphology, hierarchical clustering, parametric data modeling and non-parametric statistics. These analyses are here applied to the large dataset consisting of about 19,000 COVID-19 patients in the Veneto region (Italy) during the entire Italian national lockdown. (3) Results: We estimate the COVID-19 cumulative incidence spatial distribution, significantly reducing image noise. We identify four clusters of connected provinces based on the temporal evolution of the incidence. Surprisingly, while one cluster consists of three neighboring provinces, another one contains two provinces more than 210 km apart by highway. The survival function of the local spatial incidence values is modeled here by a tapered Pareto model, also used in other applied fields like seismology and economy in connection to networks. Model’s parameters could be relevant to describe quantitatively the epidemic. (4) Conclusion: The proposed methodology can be applied to a general situation, potentially helping to adopt strategic decisions such as the restriction of mobility and gatherings.

ACS Style

Ilaria Spassiani; Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Incidence Data. Viruses 2021, 13, 463 .

AMA Style

Ilaria Spassiani, Giovanni Sebastiani, Giorgio Palù. Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Incidence Data. Viruses. 2021; 13 (3):463.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ilaria Spassiani; Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. 2021. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Incidence Data." Viruses 13, no. 3: 463.

Journal article
Published: 15 December 2020 in Vaccines
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SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, rapidly turned into a pandemic, and is causing a relevant number of critical to severe life-threatening COVID-19 patients. However, robust statistical studies of a large cohort of patients, potentially useful to implement a vaccination campaign, are rare. We analyzed public data of about 19,000 patients for the period 28 February to 15 May 2020 by several mathematical methods. Precisely, we describe the COVID-19 evolution of a number of variables that include age, gender, patient’s care location, and comorbidities. It prompts consideration of special preventive and therapeutic measures for subjects more prone to developing life-threatening conditions while affording quantitative parameters for predicting the effects of an outburst of the pandemic on public health structures and facilities adopted in response. We propose a mathematical way to use these results as a powerful tool to face the pandemic and implement a mass vaccination campaign. This is done by means of priority criteria based on the influence of the considered variables on the probability of both death and infection.

ACS Style

Ilaria Spassiani; Lorenzo Gubian; Giorgio Palù; Giovanni Sebastiani. Vaccination Criteria Based on Factors Influencing COVID-19 Diffusion and Mortality. Vaccines 2020, 8, 766 .

AMA Style

Ilaria Spassiani, Lorenzo Gubian, Giorgio Palù, Giovanni Sebastiani. Vaccination Criteria Based on Factors Influencing COVID-19 Diffusion and Mortality. Vaccines. 2020; 8 (4):766.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ilaria Spassiani; Lorenzo Gubian; Giorgio Palù; Giovanni Sebastiani. 2020. "Vaccination Criteria Based on Factors Influencing COVID-19 Diffusion and Mortality." Vaccines 8, no. 4: 766.

Editorial
Published: 23 November 2020 in Viruses
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After a linear growth during September, the diffusion in Italy of SARS-CoV-2, responsible for COVID-19, has been growing exponentially since the end of that month with a doubling time approximately equal to one week

ACS Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. COVID-19 and School Activities in Italy. Viruses 2020, 12, 1339 .

AMA Style

Giovanni Sebastiani, Giorgio Palù. COVID-19 and School Activities in Italy. Viruses. 2020; 12 (11):1339.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Giorgio Palù. 2020. "COVID-19 and School Activities in Italy." Viruses 12, no. 11: 1339.

Covid 19
Published: 18 April 2020 in European Journal of Epidemiology
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We report on the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy in relation to the extraordinary measures implemented by the Italian Government between the 24th of February and the 12th of March. We analysed the Covid-19 cumulative incidence (CI) using data from the 1st to the 31st of March. We estimated that in Lombardy, the worst hit region in Italy, the observed Covid-19 CI diverged towards values lower than the ones expected in the absence of government measures approximately 7–10 days after the measures implementation. The Covid-19 CI growth rate peaked in Lombardy the 22nd of March and in other regions between the 24th and the 27th of March. The CI growth rate peaked in 87 out of 107 Italian provinces on average 13.6 days after the measures implementation. We projected that the CI growth rate in Lombardy should substantially slow by mid-May 2020. Other regions should follow a similar pattern. Our projections assume that the government measures will remain in place during this period. The evolution of the epidemic in different Italian regions suggests that the earlier the measures were taken in relation to the stage of the epidemic, the lower the total cumulative incidence achieved during this epidemic wave. Our analyses suggest that the government measures slowed and eventually reduced the Covid-19 CI growth where the epidemic had already reached high levels by mid-March (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto) and prevented the rise of the epidemic in regions of central and southern Italy where the epidemic was at an earlier stage in mid-March to reach the high levels already present in northern regions. As several governments indicate that their aim is to “push down” the epidemic curve, the evolution of the epidemic in Italy supports the WHO recommendation that strict containment measures should be introduced as early as possible in the epidemic curve.

ACS Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Marco Massa; Elio Riboli. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures. European Journal of Epidemiology 2020, 35, 341 -345.

AMA Style

Giovanni Sebastiani, Marco Massa, Elio Riboli. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures. European Journal of Epidemiology. 2020; 35 (4):341-345.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Giovanni Sebastiani; Marco Massa; Elio Riboli. 2020. "Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures." European Journal of Epidemiology 35, no. 4: 341-345.

Journal article
Published: 26 June 2019 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
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The crack density within a fault's damage zone is thought to vary as seismic rupture is approached, as well as in the post‐seismic period. Moreover, external stress loads, seasonal or tidal, may also change the crack density in rocks, and all such processes can leave detectable signatures on seismic attenuation. Here we show that attenuation time histories from the San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield are affected by seasonal loading cycles, as well as by 1.5–3 year periodic variations of creep rates, consistent with Turner et al. (2015), who documented a broad spectral peak, between 1.5 and 4 years, of the spectra calculated over the activity of repeating earthquakes, and over InSAR time series. After the Parkfield mainshock, we see a clear modulation between seismic attenuation correlated to tidal forces. Opposite attenuation trends are seen on the two sides of the fault up to the M6.5 2003 San Simeon earthquake, when attenuation changed discontinuously, in the same directions of the relative trends. Attenuation increased steadily of over one year on the SW side of the SAF, until the San Simeon earthquake, whereas it decreased steadily on the NE side of the SAF, roughly for the 6 months prior to the event. Random fluctuations are observed up to the 2004 M6 Parkfield mainshock, when rebounds in opposite directions are observed, in which attenuation decreased on the SW side, and increased on the NE side.

ACS Style

L. Malagnini; D.S. Dreger; R. Bürgmann; I. Munafò; G. Sebastiani. Modulation of Seismic Attenuation at Parkfield, Before and After the 2004 M 6 Earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 2019, 124, 5836 -5853.

AMA Style

L. Malagnini, D.S. Dreger, R. Bürgmann, I. Munafò, G. Sebastiani. Modulation of Seismic Attenuation at Parkfield, Before and After the 2004 M 6 Earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 2019; 124 (6):5836-5853.

Chicago/Turabian Style

L. Malagnini; D.S. Dreger; R. Bürgmann; I. Munafò; G. Sebastiani. 2019. "Modulation of Seismic Attenuation at Parkfield, Before and After the 2004 M 6 Earthquake." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 124, no. 6: 5836-5853.

Journal article
Published: 09 April 2019 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
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During the last 20 years, three seismic sequences affected the Apenninic belt (central Italy): Colfiorito (1997‐98), L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice Visso‐Norcia Campotosto (2016‐17). They lasted for a long time, with a series of moderate‐to‐large earthquakes distributed over 40‐60 km long Apenninic‐trending segments. Their closeness in space and time suggested to study their aftershock sequences to highlight similarities and differences. Aftershock space migration and the distribution of aftershock inter‐arrival times were studied. Mathematical Morphology and nonparametric statistics were applied to reduce the effect of spatial noise. Parametric analysis in time domain and spectral analysis were performed. Two different types of aftershock sequences were found. The L'Aquila sequence presented a continuous and periodic temporal variation (period ≃ 120 days) of aftershock activity centre along the sequence axis, while the other two sequences showed a piecewise continuous pattern and a shorter duration. We also found two different types of temporal evolution of the mean radial distance between the aftershock ipocentres and the one of a reference event corresponding to the start of a large and fast increase of daily energy release. One type was well described by a simple exponential model, while a power‐law model was more appropriate for the other one. Furthermore, in the first case, the aftershock inter‐arrival time were very well fitted by an exponential model, while noticeable deviations were present in the other case. A possible explanation was provided in terms of the local geological and hydrogeological properties, which depend on the region location w.r.t. the Ancona‐Anzio tectonic lineament.

ACS Style

G. Sebastiani; A. Govoni; L. Pizzino. Aftershock Patterns in Recent Central Apennines Sequences. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 2019, 124, 3881 -3897.

AMA Style

G. Sebastiani, A. Govoni, L. Pizzino. Aftershock Patterns in Recent Central Apennines Sequences. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 2019; 124 (4):3881-3897.

Chicago/Turabian Style

G. Sebastiani; A. Govoni; L. Pizzino. 2019. "Aftershock Patterns in Recent Central Apennines Sequences." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 124, no. 4: 3881-3897.