The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
6 February 2014 in New England Journal of Medicine
The first identified cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in humans occurred in China during February and March 2013. We analyzed data obtained from field investigations to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of H7N9 cases in China identified as of December 1, 2013. Field investigations were conducted for each confirmed case of H7N9 virus infection. A patient was considered to have a confirmed case if the presence of the H7N9 virus was verified by means of real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction assay (RT-PCR), viral isolation, or serologic testing. Information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines was obtained from patients with confirmed cases. Close contacts were monitored for 7 days for symptoms of illness. Throat swabs were obtained from contacts in whom symptoms developed and were tested for the presence of the H7N9 virus by means of real-time RT-PCR. Among 139 persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection, the median age was 61 years (range, 2 to 91), 71% were male, and 73% were urban residents. Confirmed cases occurred in 12 areas of China. Nine persons were poultry workers, and of 131 persons with available data, 82% had a history of exposure to live animals, including chickens (82%). A total of 137 persons (99%) were hospitalized, 125 (90%) had pneumonia or respiratory failure, and 65 of 103 with available data (63%) were admitted to an intensive care unit. A total of 47 persons (34%) died in the hospital after a median duration of illness of 21 days, 88 were discharged from the hospital, and 2 remain hospitalized in critical condition; 2 patients were not admitted to a hospital. In four family clusters, human-to-human transmission of H7N9 virus could not be ruled out. Excluding secondary cases in clusters, 2675 close contacts of case patients completed the monitoring period; respiratory symptoms developed in 28 of them (1%); all tested negative for H7N9 virus. Most persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection had severe lower respiratory tract illness, were epidemiologically unrelated, and had a history of recent exposure to poultry. However, limited, nonsustained human-to-human H7N9 virus transmission could not be ruled out in four families.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), a common contagious disease that usually affects children, is normally mild but can have life-threatening manifestations. It can be caused by enteroviruses, particularly Coxsackieviruses and human enterovirus 71 (HEV71) with highly variable clinical manifestations. In the spring of 2008, a large, unprecedented HFMD outbreak in Fuyang city of Anhui province in the central part of southeastern China resulted in a high aggregation of fatal cases. In this study, epidemiologic and clinical investigations, laboratory testing, and genetic analyses were performed to identify the causal pathogen of the outbreak. Of the 6,049 cases reported between 1 March and 9 May of 2008, 3023 (50%) were hospitalized, 353 (5.8%) were severe and 22 (0.36%) were fatal. HEV71 was confirmed as the etiological pathogen of the outbreak. Phylogenetic analyses of entire VP1 capsid protein sequence of 45 Fuyang HEV71 isolates showed that they belong to C4a cluster of the C4 subgenotype. In addition, genetic recombinations were found in the 3D region (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, a major component of the viral replication complex of the genome) between the Fuyang HEV71 strain and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), resulting in a recombination virus. In conclusion, an emerging recombinant HEV71 was responsible for the HFMD outbreak in Fuyang City of China, 2008.
China’s hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevention policy has been evaluated through nationally representative serologic surveys conducted in 1992 and 2006. We report results of a 2014 serologic survey and reanalysis of the 1992 and 2006 surveys in the context of program policy. The 2014 survey used a 2-stage sample strategy in which townships were selected from 160 longstanding, nationally representative, county-level disease surveillance points, and persons 1–29 years of age were invited to participate. The 2014 sample size was 31,713; the response rate was 83.3%. Compared with the 1992 pre–recombinant vaccine survey, HBV surface antigen prevalence declined 46% by 2006 and by 52% by 2014. Among children <5 years of age, the decline was 97%. China’s HBV prevention program, targeted toward interrupting perinatal transmission, has been highly successful and increasingly effective. However, this progress must be sustained for decades to come, and elimination of HBV transmission will require augmented strategies.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by hantaviruses is a serious public health problem in China. The National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) was established online by China CDC in 2004 and rodent surveillance sites were adjusted to 40 sites in 22 provinces in 2005. Here we analyzed the surveillance data of both human cases and rodents host during 2006–2012 to examine the epidemic trends of HFRS in recent years in China. Records on HFRS human cases and surveillance data of rodents host from 2006 to 2012 were analyzed. Phylogenetic tree based on complete sequence of M segment of 58 virus isolates was constructed and analyzed to make a better understanding of the molecular diversity of hantaviruses in China. During 2006–2012, a total of 77558 HFRS human cases and 866 deaths were reported with the average annual incidence rate of 0.83 cases/100,000 population and case fatality rate of 1.13%. 84.16% of the total cases were clustered in 9 provinces and mainly reported in spring and autumn-winter seasons. HFRS incidence in males was over 3 times higher than in females and farmers still accounted for the largest proportion. The average density of rodents was relatively stable from 2006 to 2012. Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus were predominant in wild field and residential area, respectively. Both hantaviruses carrying and infection rates in rodents had a rapid increase in 2012. Phylogenetic analysis showed that at least six clades of Hantaan virus and five of Seoul virus were prevalent in China. HFRS in China was still a natural focal disease with relatively high morbidity and fatality and its distribution and epidemic trends had also changed. Surveillance measures, together with prevention and control strategies should be improved and strengthened to reduce HFRS infection in China.
The objectives of the survey were to identify the level of influenza vaccination coverage in China in three influenza seasons 2009/10 to 2011/12, and to find out potential predictors for seasonal influenza vaccination. In September and October 2011, representative urban household telephone surveys were conducted in five provinces in China with a response rate of 6%. Four target groups were defined for analysis: 1) children ≤5 years old; 2) elderly persons aged ≥60 years old; 3) health care workers (persons working in the medical field) and 4) chronically ill persons. The overall mean vaccination rate was 9.0%. Among the four target groups, the rate of vaccination of children aged ≤5 years old (mean = 26%) was highest and the rate of elderly people aged ≥60 years old (mean = 7.4%) was the lowest, while the rates of persons who suffer from a chronic illness (mean = 9.4%) and health care workers (9.5%) were similar. A subsidy for influenza vaccination, age group, health care workers, suffering from a chronic illness and living in Eastern China were independent significant predictors for influenza vaccination. The seasonal influenza vaccination coverage rates among urban populations in selected cities and provinces in China were far below previously reported rates in developed countries. Influenza vaccination coverage rates differed widely between different target groups and provinces in China. Subsidy policy might have a positive effect on influenza vaccination rate, but further cost-effectiveness studies, as well as the vaccination rate associated factors studies are still needed to inform strategies to increase coverage.