Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria’s nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed. Key policy insights GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO₂ capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of “re-industrialisation” for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO₂ emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry—such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS—if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

Community ownership models for decentralised renewable energy (DRE) have been applied in various contexts across global south countries. However, their characteristics, effectiveness and limitations remain understudied. Understanding these ownership models is of interest in the context of bridging the persistent electricity access gap in the global south, particularly present among remote populations, and the imperative to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 by 2030. This study addresses this research gap through a scoping literature review and expert interviews. The findings shed light on the diverse definitions of community ownership in the context of decentralised renewables in the global south and on experiences of applying community ownership models in the global south, and identify four recurring themes: regulation, financing, roles and power, and capacities and skills. Through the lens of the multi-level perspective, we discuss the implications of our findings for energy access, socio-economic development policies and initiatives, and research.

In 2021, Nigeria became the first country in the world to state, quantitatively, how implementing their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change could improve health. Nigeria’s NDC stated that an estimated 30 000 premature deaths could be avoided annually by 2030 due to reduction in household air pollution caused by burning wood and charcoal for cooking. As Nigeria moves to implement its climate change commitments, there are two key questions that this paper aims to address. Firstly, across Nigeria, where are the greatest health burdens from household air pollution that could be targeted to achieve these health benefits, and secondly, to what extent does wood fuel consumption drive greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry and land use (FOLU) sector? To explore these questions this paper utilizes available statistical data on households primary cooking fuel choice at the state level in Nigeria to estimate the health impact from household air pollution due to households cooking using wood and charcoal. It also provides an estimate of the total wood fuel demand in the country and from this provides an estimate of the carbon dioxide emissions from the FOLU sector associated with these households’ biomass use. In 2018, it was estimated that of the almost 116 thousand premature deaths attributable to household air pollution in 23% occurred in 3 states in Northern Nigeria. The biomass consumption for household energy consumption across Nigeria was estimated to contribute 78% of the 151 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions estimated within this analysis to be due to the FOLU sector in Nigeria. Hence action targeted at transitioning households to modern cooking fuels and technologies can have a large impact on achieving the dual climate and health goals Nigeria has set itself within its climate change commitment.