Various factors are related to the occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Some of the strongest are identified intra- or postoperatively, which limits their utility in predicting this complication. The preoperative prediction of POPF permits an individualized approach to patient consent and selection, and may influence postoperative management. This study sought to develop and test a score to predict POPF. A post hoc analysis of a prospectively maintained database was conducted. Consecutive patients were randomly selected to modelling and validation sets at a ratio of 2 :1, respectively. Patient data, preoperative blood tests and physical characteristics of the gland (assessed from preoperative computed tomography images) were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis in the modelling set of patients. A score predictive of POPF was designed and tested in the validation set. Postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 77 of 325 (23.7%) patients. The occurrence of POPF was associated with 12 factors. On multivariate analysis, body mass index and pancreatic duct width were independently associated with POPF. A risk score to predict POPF was designed (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.832, 95% confidence interval 0.768-0.897; P < 0.001) and successfully tested upon the validation set. Preoperative assessment of a patient's risk for POPF is possible using simple measurements. The present risk score is a valid tool with which to predict POPF in patients undergoing PD.

To validate a preoperative predictive score of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Other risk factors for POPF were sought in an attempt to improve the score. POPF is the major contributor to morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). A preoperative score [using body mass index (BMI) and pancreatic duct width] to predict POPF was tested upon a multicenter patient cohort to assess its performance. Patients undergoing PD at 8 UK centers were identified. The association between the score and other pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables with POPF was assessed. A total of 630 patients underwent PD with 141 occurrences of POPF (22.4%). BMI, perirenal fat thickness, pancreatic duct width on computed tomography and at operation, bilirubin, pancreatojejunostomy technique, underlying pathology, T stage, N stage, R status, and gland firmness were all significantly associated with POPF. The score predicted POPF (P < 0.001) with a higher predictive score associated with increasing severity of POPF (P < 0.001). Stepwise multivariate analysis of pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables demonstrated that only the score was consistently associated with POPF. A table correlating the risk score to actual risk of POPF was created. The predictive score performed well and could not be improved. This provides opportunities for individualizing patient consent and selection, and treatment and research applications.

PURPOSE: To compare outcomes after laparoscopic versus open major liver resection (hemihepatectomy) mainly for primary or metastatic cancer. The primary outcome measure was time to functional recovery. Secondary outcomes included morbidity, quality of life (QoL), and for those with cancer, resection margin status and time to adjuvant systemic therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a multicenter, randomized controlled, patient-blinded, superiority trial on adult patients undergoing hemihepatectomy. Patients were recruited from 16 hospitals in Europe between November 2013 and December 2018. RESULTS: Of the 352 randomly assigned patients, 332 patients (94.3%) underwent surgery (laparoscopic, n = 166 and open, n = 166) and comprised the analysis population. The median time to functional recovery was 4 days (IQR, 3-5; range, 1-30) for laparoscopic hemihepatectomy versus 5 days (IQR, 4-6; range, 1-33) for open hemihepatectomy (difference, –17.5% [96% CI, –25.6 to –8.4]; P < .001). There was no difference in major complications (laparoscopic 24/166 [14.5%] v open 28/166 [16.9%]; odds ratio [OR], 0.84; P = .58). Regarding QoL, both global health status (difference, 3.2 points; P < .001) and body image (difference, 0.9 points; P < .001) scored significantly higher in the laparoscopic group. For the 281 (84.6%) patients with cancer, R0 resection margin status was similar (laparoscopic 106 [77.9%] v open 122 patients [84.1%], OR, 0.60; P = .14) with a shorter time to adjuvant systemic therapy in the laparoscopic group (46.5 days v 62.8 days, hazard ratio, 2.20; P = .009). CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing hemihepatectomy, the laparoscopic approach resulted in a shorter time to functional recovery compared with open surgery. In addition, it was associated with a better QoL, and in patients with cancer, a shorter time to adjuvant systemic therapy with no adverse impact on cancer outcomes observed.