VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM)) predictors to assess the intrinsic performance of the methods for downscaling precipitation and temperatures over a set of 86 stations representative of the main climatic regions in Europe. This study constitutes the largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods, covering the three common downscaling approaches (perfect prognosis, model output statistics—including bias correction—and weather generators) with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common techniques.Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve (reanalysis or RCM) raw model biases and no approach or technique seems to be superior in general, because there is a large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors most influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods (e.g., using a moving window) and their stochastic nature. The particular predictors used also play an important role in cases where the comparison was possible, both for the validation results and for the strength of the predictor–predictand link, indicating the local variability explained. However, the present study cannot give a conclusive assessment of the skill of the methods to simulate regional future climates, and further experiments will be soon performed in the framework of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative (where VALUE activities have merged and follow on).Finally, research transparency and reproducibility has been a major concern and substantive steps have been taken. In particular, the necessary data to run the experiments are provided at http://www.value‐cost.eu/data and data and validation results are available from the VALUE validation portal for further investigation: http://www.value‐cost.eu/validationportal.
Researchers and end users using climate data face a challenge when they analyze the data they need. Data volumes are increasing very rapidly, and the ability to download all needed data is often no longer possible. Most of the climate analysis tools for research and application needs must use very large datasets, often distributed among several data centres and into a large quantity of files. This is especially true when they are stored in a federated architecture like the ESGF. One of these tools is icclim (https://github.com/cerfacs-globc/icclim ), a flexible python software package to calculate climate indices and indicators. This tool adhere as much as possible to metadata conventions such as CF, implementing also provenance information. It also aims at providing increasing support for all FAIR aspects. It is designed with performance and optimisation in mind, because the goal is to provide on-demand calculations for users. It provides the implementation of most of the international standard climate indices such as ECAD, ETCCDI, ET-SCI, including the correct methodology for calculating percentile indices using the bootstrapping method. It has been validated against R.Climdex as well (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/climdex.pcic/index.html ). The new 5.x version of icclim is now based on functions from the xclim python library, which was inspired by earlier versions of icclim, but using xarray and dask for data access and processing. icclim is also a candidate as the software to calculate climate indices for the C3S toolbox (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/toolbox ). icclim is integrated in the IS-ENES C4I 2.0 platform (https://climate4impact.eu/ ), using a Jupyter notebook collection in a SWIRRL environment (Software for Interactive Reproducible Research Labs https://gitlab.com/KNMI-OSS/swirrl ). Having access to this type of analysis tool is very useful, and seamless integration with front-ends like C4I enable the use of those tools by a larger number of researchers and end users. This project (IS-ENES3) has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N°824084.
Researchers and end users using climate data face a challenge when they analyze the data they need. Data volumes are increasing very rapidly, and the ability to download all needed data is often no longer possible. Most of the climate analysis tools for research and application needs must use very large datasets, often distributed among several data centres and into a large quantity of files. This is especially true when they are stored in a federated architecture like the ESGF. One of these tools is icclim (https://github.com/cerfacs-globc/icclim ), a flexible python software package to calculate climate indices and indicators. This tool adhere as much as possible to metadata conventions such as CF, implementing also provenance information. It also aims at providing increasing support for all FAIR aspects. It is designed with performance and optimisation in mind, because the goal is to provide on-demand calculations for users. It provides the implementation of most of the international standard climate indices such as ECAD, ETCCDI, ET-SCI, including the correct methodology for calculating percentile indices using the bootstrapping method. It has been validated against R.Climdex as well (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/climdex.pcic/index.html ). The new 5.x version of icclim is now based on functions from the xclim python library, which was inspired by earlier versions of icclim, but using xarray and dask for data access and processing. icclim is also a candidate as the software to calculate climate indices for the C3S toolbox (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/toolbox ). An example of a complex analysis tool used in climate research and adaptation studies is a tool to follow storm tracks. In the context of climate change, it is important to know if storm tracks will change in the future, in both their frequency and intensity. Storms can cause significant societal impacts, hence it is important to assess future patterns. These tools are integrated in the IS-ENES C4I 2.0 platform (https://climate4impact.eu/ ), using a Jupyter notebook collection in a SWIRRL environment (Software for Interactive Reproducible Research Labs https://gitlab.com/KNMI-OSS/swirrl ). Having access to this type of complex analysis tool is very useful, and integrating them with front-ends like C4I enable the use of those tools by a larger number of researchers and end users. This project (IS-ENES3) has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N°824084.
A novel approach and methodology is developed to detect and characterize the changes in climate extreme events using Artificial Intelligence. These machine learning techniques, especially neural networks, can process large climate simulation ensembles better than traditional statistical methods. They therefore better assess uncertainties associated with the various projected IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios and climate assessments, in a Digital Twin environment. The tool will enable end users to perform on-demand what-if scenarios in order to better evaluate the impact of climate change on several real-world applications in specific regions to better adapt and prepare the society.