Thawing and freezing of Arctic soils is affected by many factors, with air temperature, vegetation, snow accumulation, and soil physical properties and soil moisture among the most important. We enhance the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and develop several high spatial resolution scenarios of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to observed and projected climate change. The ground thermal properties of surface vegetation and soil column are upscaled using the Ecosystems of Northern Alaska map and temperature data assimilation from the shallow boreholes across the Alaska North Slope. Soil temperature dynamics are simulated by solving the 1‐D nonlinear heat equation with phase change, while the snow temperature and thickness are simulated by considering the snow accumulation, compaction, and melting processes. The model is verified by comparing with available active layer thickness at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites, permafrost temperature, and snow depth records from existing permafrost observatories in the North Slope region.

Increase of surface temperatures has long been recognized as an unequivocal response to radiative forcing and one of the most important implications for global warming. However, it remains unclear whether the variation of ground surface temperature (GST) and soil temperatures is consistent with simultaneous changes of the near‐surface air and land (or skin) surface temperatures (T_a and LST). In this study, a seven‐year continuous observation of GST, T_a, and surface water and heat exchange was carried out at an elevational permafrost site at Chalaping, northeastern Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. Results showed a distinct retarding of warming on the ground surface and subsurface under the presence of dense vegetation and moist peat substrates. Mean annual T_a and LST increased at noteworthy rates of 0.22 and 0.32 °C/a, respectively, while mean annual GST increased only at a rate of 0.057 °C/a. No obvious trends were detected for the four radiation budgets except the soil heat flux (G), which significantly increased at a rate of 0.29 W · m⁻² · a⁻¹, presumably inducing the melting of ground ice and resulted in much higher moisture content through the summers of 2015 and 2016 than preceding years and subsequent 2017 at the depths between 80 and 120 cm. However, no noticeable immediate variations of soil temperatures occurred owing to the large latent heat effect (thermal inertia) and the extending zero‐curtain period. We suggest that a better protected eco‐environment, particularly the surface vegetation, helps preserving the underlying permafrost, and thus to mitigates the potential degradation of elevational permafrost on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau.

The Arctic is in transition from climate-driven thawing of permafrost. We investigate satellite-derived water equivalent mass changes, snow water equivalent with in situ measurements of runoff and ground-survey derived geoid models from 1999 through 2009. The Alaskan Arctic coastal plain groundwater storage (including wetland bog, thaw pond and lake) is increasing by 1.15 ± 0.65 km³/a (area-average 1.10 ± 0.62 cm/a), and Yukon River watershed groundwater storage is decreasing by 7.44 ± 3.76 km³/a (area‑average 0.79 ± 0.40 cm/a). Geoid changes show increases within the Arctic coastal region and decreases within the Yukon River watershed. We hypothesize these changes are linked to the development of new predominately closed- and possibly open-talik in the continuous permafrost zone under large thaw lakes with increases of lakes and new predominately open-talik and reduction of permafrost extent in the discontinuous and sporadic zones with decreases of thaw lakes.

Arctic sea ice is a key component of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. This cycle is connected to land and ocean temperature variations and Arctic snow cover variations, spatially and temporally. Arctic temperature variations from historical observations shows an early 20th century increase (i.e. warming), followed by a period of Arctic temperature decrease (i.e. cooling) since the 1940s, which was followed by another period of Arctic temperature increase since the 1970s that continues into the two decades of the 21st century. Evidence has been accumulating that Arctic sea ice extent can experience multi-decadal to centennial time scale variations as it is a component of the Arctic Geohydrological System. We investigate the multi-satellite and sensor daily values of area extent of Arctic sea ice since SMMR on Nimbus 7 (1978) to AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 (2019). From the daily time series we use the first year-cycle as a wave-pattern to compare to all subsequent years-cycles through April 2020 (in progress), and constitute a derivative time series. In this time series we find the emergence of a multi-decadal cycle, showing a relative minimum during the period of 2007 to 2014, and subsequently rising. This may be related to an 80-year cycle (hypothesis). The Earth’s weather system is principally driven the solar radiation and its variations. If the multi-decadal cycle in Arctic sea ice area extent that we interpret continues, it may be linked physically to the Wolf-Gleissberg cycle, a factor in the variations of terrestrial cosmogenic isotopes, ocean sediment layering and glacial varves, ENSO and Aurora.Our hypothesis and results give more evidence that the multi-decadal variation of Arctic sea ice area extent is controlled by natural physical processes of the Sun-Earth system. 

Arctic sea ice is a key component of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. This cycle is connected to land and ocean temperature variations and Arctic snow cover variations, spatially and temporally. Arctic temperature variations from historical observations shows an early 20th century increase (i.e. warming), followed by a period of Arctic temperature decrease (i.e. cooling) since the 1940s, which was followed by another period of Arctic temperature increase since the 1970s that continues into the two decades of the 21st century. Evidence has been accumulating that Arctic sea ice extent can experience multi-decadal to centennial time scale variations as it is a component of the Arctic Geohydrological System. We investigate the multi-satellite and sensor daily values of area extent of Arctic sea ice since SMMR on Nimbus 7 (1978) to AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 (2019). From the daily time series we use the first year-cycle as a wave-pattern to compare to all subsequent years-cycles, currently to 30 June 2019, and constitute a derivative time series. In this time series we find the emergence of a multi-decadal cycle, showing a relative minimum during the period of 2007 to 2014, and subsequently rising. This may be related to an 80-year cycle (hypothesis). The Earth’s weather system is principally driven the solar radiation and its variations. If the multi-decadal cycle in Arctic sea ice area extent that we interpret continues, it may be linked physically to the Wolf-Gleissberg cycle, a factor in the variations of terrestrial cosmogenic isotopes, ocean sediment layering and glacial varves, ENSO and Aurora. Our hypothesis and results give more evidence that the multi-decadal variation of Arctic sea ice area extent is controlled natural physical processes of the Sun-Earth system.