Background: Measurement error in exposures and confounders can bias exposure–outcome associations but is rarely considered. We aimed to assess random measurement error of all continuous variables in UK Biobank and explore approaches to mitigate its impact on exposure–outcome associations. Methods: Random measurement error was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for all continuous variables with repeat measures. Regression calibration was used to correct for random error in exposures and confounders, using the associations of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), C-reactive protein (CRP) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with mortality as illustrative examples. Results: The 2858 continuous variables with repeat measures varied in sample size from 109 to 49 121. They fell into three groups: (i) baseline visit [529 variables; median (interquartile range) ICC = 0.64 (0.57, 0.83)]; (ii) online diet by 24-h recall [22 variables; 0.35 (0.30, 0.40)] and (iii) imaging measures [2307 variables; 0.85 (0.73, 0.94)]. Highest ICCs were for anthropometric and medical history measures, and lowest for dietary and heart magnetic resonance imaging. The ICCs (95% confidence interval) for RDW, CRP and 25(OH)D were 0.52 (0.51, 0.53), 0.29 (0.27, 0.30) and 0.55 (0.54, 0.56), respectively. Higher RDW and levels of CRP were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, and higher concentration of 25(OH)D with lower risk. After correction for random measurement error in the main exposure, the associations all strengthened. Confounder correction did not influence estimates. Conclusions: Random measurement error varies widely and is often non-negligible. For UK Biobank we provide relevant statistics and adaptable code to help other researchers explore and correct for this.

Background—The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I is surveying school pupils in high-income and low- or middle-income countries using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology. Methods—Cross-sectional surveys of participants in two age groups in randomly selected schools within each centre (2015–2020). The compulsory age group is 13–14 years (adolescents), optionally including parents or guardians. Six to seven years (children) and their parents are also optional. Adolescents completed questionnaires at school, and took home adult questionnaires for parent/guardian completion. Children took home questionnaires for parent/guardian completion about the child and also adult questionnaires. Questions related to symptoms and risk factors for asthma and allergy, asthma management, school/work absence and hospitalisation. Results—53 centres in 20 countries completed quality checks by 31 May 2020. These included 21 centres that previously participated in ISAAC. There were 132,748 adolescents (average response rate 88.8%), 91,802 children (average response rate 79.1%), and 177,622 adults, with >97% answering risk factor questions and >98% answering questions on asthma management, school/work absence and hospitalisation. Conclusion—The high response rates achieved in ISAAC have generally been maintained in GAN. GAN Phase I surveys, partially overlapping with ISAAC centres, will allow within-centre analyses of time-trends in prevalence.

Background: Phase Three of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) measured the global prevalence of symptoms of asthma in children. We undertook comprehensive analyses addressing risk factors for asthma symptoms in combination, at both the individual and the school level, to explore the potential role of reverse causation due to selective avoidance or confounding by indication.Objective: To explore the role of reverse causation in risk factors of asthma symptoms.Methods: We compared two sets of multilevel logistic regression analyses, using (a) individual level exposure data and (b) school level average exposure (ie prevalence), in two different age groups. In individual level analyses, reverse causation is a possible concern if individual level exposure statuses were changed as a result of asthma symptoms or diagnosis. School level analyses may suffer from ecologic confounding, but reverse causation is less of a concern because individual changes in exposure status as a result of asthma symptoms would only have a small effect on overall school exposure levels.Results: There were 131 924 children aged 6‐7 years (2428 schools, 25 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (odds ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval 1.97‐2.16), early life antibiotic use (1.65; 1.58‐1.73) and open fire cooking (1.44; 1.26‐1.65). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks.There were 238 586 adolescents aged 13‐14 years (2072 schools, 42 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (1.80; 1.75‐1.86), cooking on an open fire (1.32; 1.22‐1.43) and maternal tobacco use (1.23; 1.18‐1.27). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks.Conclusions & clinical relevance: These analyses strengthen the potentially causal interpretation of previously reported individual level findings, by providing evidence against reverse causation.

The disadvantaged populations eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) epidemiology (DEGREE) study was designed to gain insight into the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of undetermined cause (CKDu) using standard protocols to estimate the general-population prevalence of low eGFR internationally. Therefore, we estimated the age-standardized prevalence of eGFR under 60 ml/min per 1.73m² in adults aged 18-60, excluding participants with commonly known causes of CKD; an ACR (albumin/creatinine ratio) over 300 mg/g or equivalent, or self-reported or measured (HT) hypertension or (DM) diabetes mellitus, stratified by sex and location. We included population-representative surveys conducted around the world that were either designed to estimate CKDu burden or were re-analyses of large surveys. There were 60,964 participants from 43 areas across 14 countries, with data collected 2007- 2023. The highest prevalence was seen in rural men in Uddanam, India (14%) and Northwest Nicaragua (14%). Prevalence above 5% was generally only observed in rural men, with exceptions for rural women in Ecuador (6%) and parts of Uddanam (6%‒8%), and for urban men in Leon, Nicaragua (7%). Outside of Central America and South Asia, prevalence was below 2%. Our observations represent the first attempts to estimate the prevalence of eGFR under 60 without commonly known causes of CKD around the world, as an estimate of CKDu burden, and provide a starting point for global monitoring. It is not yet clear what drives the differences, but available evidence supports a high general-population burden of CKDu in multiple areas within Central America and South Asia, although the possibility that unidentified clusters of disease may exist elsewhere cannot be excluded.

Some previously described environmental associations for atopic eczema may be due to reverse causation. We explored the role of reverse causation by comparing individual- and school-level results for multiple atopic eczema risk factors. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (i.e, ISAAC) Phase Three surveyed children in schools (the sampling unit) regarding atopic eczema symptoms and potential risk factors. We assessed the effect of these risk factors on atopic eczema symptoms using mixed-effect logistic regression models, first with individual-level exposure data and second with school-level exposure prevalence. Overall, 546,348 children from 53 countries were included. At ages 6-7 years, the strongest individual-level associations were with current paracetamol use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37-1.54), which persisted at school-level (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.10-2.21), early-life antibiotics (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34-1.48), and early-life paracetamol use (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36), with the former persisting at the school level, whereas the latter was no longer observed (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.00-1.82 and OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.69-1.28, respectively). At ages 13-14 years, the strongest associations at the individual level were with current paracetamol use (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.51-1.63) and open-fire cooking (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.33-1.62); both were stronger at the school level (OR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.84-3.59 and OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.52-3.73, respectively). Association with exposure to heavy traffic (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.27-1.36) also persisted at the school level (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.07-1.82). Most individual- and school-level effects were consistent, tending to exclude reverse causation.

Background: The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and the Global Asthma Network (GAN) conducted a series of global asthma prevalence surveys, between 1990 and 2020, in adolescents aged 13 -14 and children aged 6 -7 years. We used them to assess whether potential asthma risk factors explain global asthma symptom prevalence trends over this period. Method: We fitted mixed-effects linear regression models to estimate associations between centre-level risk factor prevalence and both the mid-point asthma symptom prevalence and the change per decade. We also estimated the 2019 asthma symptom prevalence across all included centres. Results: For adolescents, across 50 centres in 26 countries there was weak evidence that decreasing asthma prevalence over time was associated with regular fast-food consumption and frequent television viewing. However, frequent television viewing, along with heavy truck traf fic, were associated with higher prevalence of asthma symptoms at the study mid-point. For children, across 41 centres in 21 countries, no risk factors were associated with time trends in asthma symptom prevalence, but truck traf fic and paracetamol in the first year of life were associated with higher mid-point prevalence. We estimated the 2019 asthma symptom prevalence, across a total of 124 centres, to be 12.8% (11.4%, 14.2%) with little evidence of a difference by age. Low-income countries had lower prevalence (children 5.2% [2.5%, 7.8%], adolescents 5.3% [2.8%, 7.8%]), than lower-middle-, upper-middle- and high-income countries (all approximately 14 -15%). Including risk factors in the models did not change the estimates. Conclusion: Potential asthma risk factors do not seem to explain the global prevalence patterns or time trends. Country income accounts for some of the differences, but the unexplained variation is very high.