Survival analysis encompasses investigation of time to event data. In most clinical studies, estimating the cumulative incidence function (or the probability of experiencing an event by a given time) is of primary interest. When the data consist of patients who experience an event and censored individuals, a nonparametric estimate of the cumulative incidence can be obtained using the Kaplan–Meier method. Under this approach, the censoring mechanism is assumed to be noninformative. In other words, the survival time of an individual (or the time at which a subject experiences an event) is assumed to be independent of a mechanism that would cause the patient to be censored. Often times, a patient may experience an event other than the one of interest which alters the probability of experiencing the event of interest. Such events are known as competing risk events. In this setting, it would often be of interest to calculate the cumulative incidence of a specific event of interest. Any subject who does not experience the event of interest can be treated as censored. However, a patient experiencing a competing risk event is censored in an informative manner. Hence, the Kaplan–Meier estimation procedure may not be directly applicable. The cumulative incidence function for an event of interest must be calculated by appropriately accounting for the presence of competing risk events. In this paper, we illustrate nonparametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function for an event of interest in the presence of competing risk events using two published data sets. We compare the resulting estimates with those obtained using the Kaplan–Meier approach to demonstrate the importance of appropriately estimating the cumulative incidence of an event of interest in the presence of competing risk events.

Fanconi anemia (FA) is an autosomal recessive disorder characterized by cellular hypersensitivity to DNA cross-linking agents and cancer predisposition. Recent evidence for the interactions of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated protein ATM and breast cancer susceptibility proteins BRCA1 and BRCA2 (identified as FANCD1) with other known FA proteins suggests that FA proteins have a significant role in DNA repair/recombination and cell cycle control. The International Fanconi Anemia Registry (IFAR), a prospectively collected database of FA patients, allows us the unique opportunity to analyze the natural history of this rare, clinically heterogeneous disorder in a large number of patients. Of the 754 subjects in this study, 601 (80%) experienced the onset of bone marrow failure (BMF), and 173 (23%) had a total of 199 neoplasms. Of these neoplasms, 120 (60%) were hematologic and 79 (40%) were nonhematologic. The risk of developing BMF and hematologic and nonhematologic neoplasms increased with advancing age with a 90%, 33%, and 28% cumulative incidence, respectively, by 40 years of age. Univariate analysis revealed a significantly earlier onset of BMF and poorer survival for complementation group C compared with groups A and G; however, there was no significant difference in the time to hematologic or nonhematologic neoplasm development between these groups. Multivariate analysis of overall survival time shows that FANCCmutations (P = .007) and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (P = < .0001) define a poor-risk subgroup. The results of this study of patients registered in the IFAR over a 20-year period provide information that will enable better prediction of outcome and aid clinicians with decisions regarding major therapeutic modalities.

DNA repair is a system of defenses designed to protect the integrity of the genome. Deficiencies in this system likely lead to the development of cancer. The epidemiology of DNA repair capacity and of its effect on cancer susceptibility in humans is, therefore, an important area of investigation. We have summarized all of the published epidemiologic studies on DNA repair in human cancer through 1998 (n = 64) that addressed the association of cancer susceptibility with a putative defect in DNA repair capacity. We have considered study design, subject characteristics, potential biases, confounding variables, and sources of technical variability. Assays of DNA repair capacity used, to date, can be broadly grouped into five categories: 1) tests based on DNA damage induced with chemicals or physical agents, such as the mutagen sensitivity assay, the G₂-radiation assay, induced micronuclei, and the Comet assay; 2) indirect tests of DNA repair, such as unscheduled DNA synthesis; 3) tests based on more direct measures of repair kinetics, such as the host cell reactivation assay; 4) measures of genetic variation associated with DNA repair; and 5) combinations of more than one category of assay. The use of such tests in human populations yielded positive and consistent associations between DNA repair capacity and cancer occurrence (with odds ratios in the range of 1.4–75.3, with the majority of values between 2 and 10). However, the studies that we have reviewed have limitations, including small sample size, “convenience” controls, the use of cells different from the target organ, and the use of mutagens that do not occur in the natural environment. The evolving ability to study polymorphisms in DNA repair genes may contribute to new understandings about the mechanisms of DNA repair and the way in which DNA repair capacity affects the development of cancer.

Background: Melanoma incidence and survival are positively associated, both geographically and temporally. Solar elastosis, a histologic indicator of cutaneous sun damage, has also been positively associated with melanoma survival. Although these observations raise the possibility that sun exposure increases melanoma survival, they could be explained by an association between incidence and early detection of melanoma. We therefore evaluated the association between measures of skin screening and death from cutaneous melanoma. Methods: Case subjects (n = 528) from a population-based study of cutaneous melanoma were followed for an average of more than 5 years. Data, including measures of intermittent sun exposure, perceived awareness of the skin, skin self-screening, and physician screening, were collected during in-person interviews and review of histopathology and histologic parameters (i.e., solar elastosis, Breslow thickness, and mitoses) for all of the lesions. Competing risk models were used to compute risk of death (hazard ratios [HRs], with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) from melanoma. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Sunburn, high intermittent sun exposure, skin awareness histories, and solar elastosis were statistically significantly inversely associated with death from melanoma. Melanoma thickness, mitoses, ulceration, and anatomic location on the head and neck were statistically significantly positively associated with melanoma death. In a multivariable competing risk analysis, skin awareness (with versus without, HR = 0.5, 95% CI = 0.3 to 0.9, P = .022) and solar elastosis (present versus absent, HR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.8, P = .009) were strongly and independently associated with melanoma death after adjusting for Breslow thickness, mitotic index, and head and neck location, which were also independently associated with death. Conclusions: Sun exposure is associated with increased survival from melanoma.

Although some evidence indicates that early detection protects against the development of lethal melanoma, no randomized clinical trials have been conducted to measure the efficacy of early detection (or screening) in preventing death from this disease. Since melanoma incidence in the United States is relatively rare, a randomized clinical trial to test the efficacy of screening would be extremely expensive. As an alternative to a randomized clinical trial, we conducted a population-based, case-control study to investigate whether early detection through skin self-examination (SSE) is associated with a decreased risk of lethal melanoma (includes the presence of advanced disease with distant metastases in addition to death from melanoma). SSE (conducting a careful, deliberate, and purposeful examination of the skin) was assessed in all subjects by use of a structured questionnaire and personal interviews. The major exposure variable, SSE, was defined following focus-group interviews with melanoma patients and healthy control subjects. The final study population consisted of 1199 Caucasian residents of the state of Connecticut enrolled from January 15, 1987, through May 15, 1989; 650 individuals were newly diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma, and the remaining 549 individuals were age- and sex-frequency matched control subjects from the general population. During the study interviews, nevi on the arms and backs of subjects were counted. In 5 years of follow-up (through March 1994), 110 lethal cases of melanoma were identified. The study design allowed separate estimation of the impact of SSE on reduced melanoma incidence (primary prevention) and survival among incident cases (secondary prevention). Odds ratios (ORs) were used to measure the associations between SSE and melanoma and between SSE and lethal melanoma. SSE, practiced by only 15% of all subjects, was associated with a reduced risk of melanoma incidence (adjusted OR = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.44-0.99; comparing case patients with control subjects). The data indicated further that SSE may reduce the risk of advanced disease among melanoma patients (unadjusted risk ratio = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.31-1.11); however, longer follow-up is required to confirm this latter estimate. If both estimates are correct, they suggest, in combination, that SSE may reduce mortality from melanoma by 63% (adjusted OR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.16-0.84; comparing lethal cases with general population controls). SSE may provide a useful and inexpensive screening method to reduce the incidence of melanoma. SSE may also reduce the development of advanced disease. The results of this study need to be replicated before strategies to increase the practice of SSE are further developed and promoted. [J Natl Cancer Inst 1996;88:17–23]

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 30-year, population-based trends in incidence and survival rates for malignant germ cell tumors originating within the female genital tract. METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to identify malignant germ cell tumors (1973–2002). Overall and 5-year incidence rates, estimated annual percentage change, and survival rates were calculated and compared by age at diagnosis, race, stage, and histology. RESULTS: Of 1,262 cases, there were 414 (32.8%) dysgerminomas, 449 (35.6%) immature teratomas, 37 (2.9%) mature teratomas with malignant degeneration, and 362 (28.7%) mixed germ cell tumors. The 30-year, age-adjusted incidence rate per 100,000 women-years was 0.338, decreasing by 29.4% for dysgerminomas (P = .18) and by 31.5% for mixed germ cell tumors (P = .22). Other nonwhites had higher rates than whites and blacks, but dysgerminoma rates were higher in whites and other nonwhites than in blacks. Using the registries for expanded races, rates were higher for Asian/Pacific Islanders (P = .059) and Hispanics (P = .07). By age at diagnosis, 15–19 year olds had the highest rates and the only significant change in rates (37.5% increase, P = .008). The 5-year relative survival was 83.9%. Survival rates improved significantly over calendar time and varied by histologic subtype, race, stage of disease, and age at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Over the past 30 years, germ cell tumor incidence rates have declined in women and differ from rising trends reported for testicular tumors. Survival rates have improved but were lower for older women and for nondysgerminoma subtypes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II-3