Both immune profiling and tumor budding significantly correlate with colorectal cancer patient outcome but are traditionally reported independently. This study evaluated the association and interaction between lymphocytic infiltration and tumor budding, coregistered on a single slide, in order to determine a more precise prognostic algorithm for patients with stage II colorectal cancer. Multiplexed immunofluorescence and automated image analysis were used for the quantification of CD3⁺CD8⁺ T cells, and tumor buds (TBs), across whole slide images of three independent cohorts (training cohort: n = 114, validation cohort 1: n = 56, validation cohort 2: n = 62). Machine learning algorithms were used for feature selection and prognostic risk model development. High numbers of TBs [HR = 5.899; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.875–18.55], low CD3⁺ T-cell density (HR = 9.964; 95% CI, 3.156–31.46), and low mean number of CD3⁺CD8⁺ T cells within 50 μm of TBs (HR = 8.907; 95% CI, 2.834–28.0) were associated with reduced disease-specific survival. A prognostic signature, derived from integrating TBs, lymphocyte infiltration, and their spatial relationship, reported a more significant cohort stratification (HR = 18.75; 95% CI, 6.46–54.43), than TBs, Immunoscore, or pT stage. This was confirmed in two independent validation cohorts (HR = 12.27; 95% CI, 3.524–42.73; HR = 15.61; 95% CI, 4.692–51.91). The investigation of the spatial relationship between lymphocytes and TBs within the tumor microenvironment improves accuracy of prognosis of patients with stage II colorectal cancer through an automated image analysis and machine learning workflow.

Cellular subpopulations within the colorectal tumor microenvironment (TME) include CD3⁺ and CD8⁺ lymphocytes, CD68⁺ and CD163⁺ macrophages, and tumor buds (TBs), all of which have known prognostic significance in stage II colorectal cancer. However, the prognostic relevance of their spatial interactions remains unknown. Here, by applying automated image analysis and machine learning approaches, we evaluate the prognostic significance of these cellular subpopulations and their spatial interactions. Resultant data, from a training cohort retrospectively collated from Edinburgh, UK hospitals (n = 113), were used to create a combinatorial prognostic model, which identified a subpopulation of patients who exhibit 100% survival over a 5-year follow-up period. The combinatorial model integrated lymphocytic infiltration, the number of lymphocytes within 50-μm proximity to TBs, and the CD68⁺/CD163⁺ macrophage ratio. This finding was confirmed on an independent validation cohort, which included patients treated in Japan and Scotland (n = 117). This work shows that by analyzing multiple cellular subpopulations from the complex TME, it is possible to identify patients for whom surgical resection alone may be curative.

Multiple histopathologic features have been reported as candidates for predicting aggressive stage II colorectal cancer (CRC). These include tumor budding (TB), poorly differentiated clusters (PDC), Crohn-like lymphoid reaction and desmoplastic reaction (DR) categorization. Although their individual prognostic significance has been established, their association with disease-specific survival (DSS) has not been compared in stage II CRC. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the above features in a Japanese (n=283) and a Scottish (n=163) cohort, as well as to compare 2 different reporting methodologies: analyzing each feature from across every tissue slide from the whole tumor and a more efficient methodology reporting each feature from a single slide containing the deepest tumor invasion. In the Japanese cohort, there was an excellent agreement between the multi-slide and single-slide methodologies for TB, PDC, and DR (κ=0.798 to 0.898) and a good agreement when assessing Crohn-like lymphoid reaction (κ=0.616). TB (hazard ratio [HR]=1.773; P=0.016), PDC (HR=1.706; P=0.028), and DR (HR=2.982; P<0.001) based on the single-slide method were all significantly associated with DSS. DR was the only candidate feature reported to be a significant independent prognostic factor (HR=2.982; P<0.001) with both multi-slide and single-slide methods. The single-slide result was verified in the Scottish cohort, where multivariate Cox regression analysis reported that DR was the only significant independent feature (HR=1.778; P=0.002) associated with DSS. DR was shown to be the most significant of all the analyzed histopathologic features to predict disease-specific death in stage II CRC. We further show that analyzing the features from a single-slide containing the tumor’s deepest invasion is an efficient and quicker method of evaluation.

Tumour budding has been described as an independent prognostic feature in several tumour types. We report for the first time the relationship between tumour budding and survival evaluated in patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer. A machine learning-based methodology was applied to accurately quantify tumour buds across immunofluorescence labelled whole slide images from 100 muscle invasive bladder cancer patients. Furthermore, tumour budding was found to be correlated to TNM (p = 0.00089) and pT (p = 0.0078) staging. A novel classification and regression tree model was constructed to stratify all stage II, III, and IV patients into three new staging criteria based on disease specific survival. For the stratification of non-metastatic patients into high or low risk of disease specific death, our decision tree model reported that tumour budding was the most significant feature (HR = 2.59, p = 0.0091), and no clinical feature was utilised to categorise these patients. Our findings demonstrate that tumour budding, quantified using automated image analysis provides prognostic value for muscle invasive bladder cancer patients and a better model fit than TNM staging.

The clinical staging and prognosis of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) routinely includes the assessment of patient tissue samples by a pathologist. Recent studies corroborate the importance of image analysis in identifying and quantifying immunological markers from tissue samples that can provide further insight into patient prognosis. In this paper, we apply multiplex immunofluorescence to MIBC tissue sections to capture whole-slide images and quantify potential prognostic markers related to lymphocytes, macrophages, tumour buds, and PD-L1. We propose a machine-learning-based approach for the prediction of 5 year prognosis with different combinations of image, clinical, and spatial features. An ensemble model comprising several functionally different models successfully stratifies MIBC patients into two risk groups with high statistical significance (p value < $1\times {10}^{-5}$). Critical to improving MIBC survival rates, our method correctly classifies $71.4\%$ of the patients who succumb to MIBC, which is significantly more than the $28.6\%$ of the current clinical gold standard, the TNM staging system.

Background: The tumor microenvironment is highly heterogeneous, and it is understood to affect tumor progression and patient outcome. A number of studies have reported the prognostic significance of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and tumor budding in colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the significance of the intratumoral heterogeneity present in the spatial distribution of these features within the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) has not been previously reported. Evaluating this intratumoral heterogeneity may aid the understanding of the TIME's effect on patient prognosis as well as identify novel aggressive phenotypes which can be further investigated as potential targets for new treatment. Methods: In this study, we propose and apply two spatial statistical methodologies for the evaluation of the intratumor heterogeneity present in the distribution of CD3 ⁺ and CD8 ⁺ lymphocytes and tumor buds (TB) in 232 Stage II CRC cases. Getis-Ord hotspot analysis was applied to quantify the cold and hotspots, defined as regions with a significantly low or high number of each feature of interest, respectively. A novel spatial heatmap methodology for the quantification of the cold and hotspots of each feature of interest, which took into account both the interpatient heterogeneity and the intratumor heterogeneity, was further developed. Results: Resultant data from each analysis, characterizing the spatial intratumor heterogeneity of lymphocytes and TBs were used for the development of two new highly prognostic risk models. Conclusions: Our results highlight the value of applying spatial statistics for the assessment of the intratumor heterogeneity. Both Getis-Ord hotspot and our proposed spatial heatmap analysis are broadly applicable across other tissue types as well as other features of interest. Availability: The code underpinning this publication can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.17630/c2306fe9-66e2-4442-ad89-f986220053e2.