Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5^th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources—conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

SUMMARY: Growing evidence demonstrates that bacterial species diversity is substantial, and many of these species are pathogenic in some contexts or hosts. At the same time, laboratories and museums have collected valuable animal tissue and ectoparasite samples that may contain substantial novel information on bacterial prevalence and diversity. However, the identification of bacterial species is challenging, partly due to the difficulty in culturing many microbes and the reliance on molecular data. Although the genomics revolution will surely add to our knowledge of bacterial systematics, these approaches are not accessible to all researchers and rely predominantly on cultured isolates. Thus, there is a need for comprehensive molecular analyses capable of accurately genotyping bacteria from animal tissues or ectoparasites using common methods that will facilitate large-scale comparisons of species diversity and prevalence. To illustrate the challenges of genotyping bacteria, we focus on the genusBartonella, vector-borne bacteria common in mammals. We highlight the value and limitations of commonly used techniques for genotyping bartonellae and make recommendations for researchers interested in studying the diversity of these bacteria in various samples. Our recommendations could be applicable to many bacterial taxa (with some modifications) and could lead to a more complete understanding of bacterial species diversity.

Twice a year in southwestern Nigeria, during a traditional bat festival, community participants enter designated caves to capture bats, which are then consumed for food or traded. We investigated the presence of Bartonella species in Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) and bat flies (Eucampsipoda africana) from these caves and assessed whether Bartonella infections had occurred in persons from the surrounding communities. Our results indicate that these bats and flies harbor Bartonella strains, which multilocus sequence typing indicated probably represent a novel Bartonella species, proposed as Bartonella rousetti. In serum from 8 of 204 persons, we detected antibodies to B. rousetti without cross-reactivity to other Bartonella species. This work suggests that bat-associated Bartonella strains might be capable of infecting humans.

Bats are important reservoirs for many zoonotic pathogens. However, no surveys of bacterial pathogens in bats have been performed in the Caucasus region. To understand the occurrence and distribution of bacterial infections in these mammals, 218 bats belonging to eight species collected from four regions of Georgia were examined for Bartonella, Brucella, Leptospira, and Yersinia using molecular approaches. Bartonella DNA was detected in 77 (35%) bats from all eight species and was distributed in all four regions. The prevalence ranged 6–50% per bat species. The Bartonella DNA represented 25 unique genetic variants that clustered into 21 lineages. Brucella DNA was detected in two Miniopterus schreibersii bats and in two Myotis blythii bats, all of which were from Imereti (west-central region). Leptospira DNA was detected in 25 (13%) bats that included four M. schreibersii bats and 21 M. blythii bats collected from two regions. The Leptospira sequences represented five genetic variants with one of them being closely related to the zoonotic pathogen L. interrogans (98.6% genetic identity). No Yersinia DNA was detected in the bats. Mixed infections were observed in several cases. One M. blythii bat and one M. schreibersii bat were co-infected with Bartonella, Brucella, and Leptospira; one M. blythii bat and one M. schreibersii bat were co-infected with Bartonella and Brucella; 15 M. blythii bats and three M. schreibersii bats were co-infected with Bartonella and Leptospira. Our results suggest that bats in Georgia are exposed to multiple bacterial infections. Further studies are needed to evaluate pathogenicity of these agents to bats and their zoonotic potential.