Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.

Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi‐decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi‐decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi‐decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual‐to‐decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

Availability of water for irrigated crops is driven by climate and policy, as moderated by public priorities and opinions. We explore how climate and water policy interact to influence water availability for cannabis (Cannabis sativa), a newly regulated crop in California, as well as how public discourse frames these interactions. Grower access to surface water covaries with precipitation frequency and oscillates consistently in an energetic 11–17 year wet-dry cycle. Assessing contemporary cannabis water policies against historic streamflow data showed that legal surface water access was most reliable for cannabis growers with small water rights (<600 m³) and limited during relatively dry years. Climate variability either facilitates or limits water access in cycles of 10–15 years—rendering cultivators with larger water rights vulnerable to periods of drought. However, news media coverage excludes growers’ perspectives and rarely mentions climate and weather, while public debate over growers’ irrigation water use presumes illegal diversion. This complicates efforts to improve growers’ legal water access, which are further challenged by climate. To promote a socially, politically, and environmentally viable cannabis industry, water policy should better represent growers’ voices and explicitly address stakeholder controversies as it adapts to this new and legal agricultural water user.

Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the twenty-first century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here, we show that changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the intermodel variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the twenty-first century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model, version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.

Anomalously cold winters with extreme storms strain natural gas (NG) markets due to heightened demand for heating and electricity generation. While extended weather forecasting has become an indicator for NG management, seasonal (2–3 month) prediction could mitigate the impact of extreme winters on the NG market for consumers and industry. Interrelated climate patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit characteristics useful for developing effective seasonal outlooks of NG storage and consumption due to their influence on the persistence and intensity of extreme winter weather in North America. This study explores the connection between the Pacific-North American climate systems and the NG market in the U.S., connecting macro-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes to regional NG storage and consumption. Western Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns describe significant variation in seasonal NG storage and consumption. Prediction of these coupled climate processes is useful for estimating NG storage and consumption; this could facilitate economic adaptation toward extreme winter weather conditions. Understanding the implicated impact of climate variability on NG is a crucial step toward economic adaptation to climate change.