Based on the theory of optimal currency area (OCA), we calculate the OCA index between China and the OBOR partners with the expressed objective of identifying which partners exhibit monetary and financial compatibilities, and hence present the best potential in terms of cost and benefits. Our findings suggest that among South East Asia region, Malaysia exhibits the highest compatibility and profit potential, followed by Thailand and Vietnam. For the East European area, Poland and Croatia show the best potential in terms of monetary and financial cooperation; with the Czech Republic as close third. Based on our computation, currently Central Asia and the Middle East do not possess the condition or potential for beneficial financial and monetary collaboration.
The literature has mixed findings regarding the impact of climate change on agricultural production, probably due to different choices of dependent variables. Based on panel data analysis of 140 countries from an extended period, i.e., 1961 to 2013, this study applies the explicit method of using TFP as the dependent variable, but also delivers estimations with the implicit approach of using agricultural output as the dependent variable, so as to be able to directly compare the results with the mainstream trends in the existing literature. We found that using agricultural TFP as the dependent variable generates more consistent and robust results. We also found a strong negative impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. A one-unit downward deviation of precipitation (i.e., drought) and one unit of upward deviation of temperature (i.e., global warming) decrease the TFP by 0.530 and 0.494, respectively. As we have one of the largest sample sizes when it comes to studying the effect of climate change, we carried out an exploration by dividing the sample into different categories of developed vs. developing countries and cold vs. warm climates, as well as by splitting the time series into two distinct periods. We found that climate change has had a heterogeneous impact on countries with different development levels, with negative impacts on developing countries and positive effects on developed countries, which leads to the rising concern of the impact of climate change on inequality. This heterogeneity and the uneven impact found in this study strongly suggest the need for countries to work together to coordinate and mitigate these adverse effects rather than to adapt to the situation by focusing on the input variations, as the latter will increase the inequality effect of climate change and add to an already unstable global environment.
Toward the end of the previous century, the focus on economic growth and development has shifted from overpopulation as a burden of growth toward the issue of aging population. This is a global issue, but it is especially acute for China. First, for China, the aging population is not a mere natural economic consequence of increased wealth leading to declined fertility, it is the result of a deliberate policy: the one-child policy. Second, unlike its neighbors, China is poised to become old before it becomes rich. Finally, the sheer size of China makes many policies unfeasible in other countries and regions. This study explores the nature and causes of China’s aging population, the lackluster effects of the universal two-child policy, and the uniqueness of China’s aging. To combat the potential astronomical healthcare costs of the aging population, we propose an unorthodox Self-Motivated Health Maintenance healthcare philosophy. More important, we propose the establishment of a novel Elderly Residential and Social Community to provide quality care for the elderly and children, with cost control and community orientation as the goal.
Since the 1980s, China's government has eased restrictions on internal migration. This easing, along with rapid growth of the Chinese economy and substantial increases in foreign and domestic investments, has greatly stimulated internal migration. Earlier studies have established that migration patterns were responsive to spatial differences in labor markets in China, especially during the 1990s. However, other important economic and socio-political determinants of interprovincial migration flows have not been considered. These include the size of the migrant community in the destination, foreign direct and domestic fixed asset investments, industry and ethnic mixes and geographic biases in migration patterns. We estimate a modified gravity model of interprovincial migration in China that includes as explanatory variables: migrant networks in the destination province, provincial economic conditions, provincial human capital endowments, domestic and foreign investments made in the province, industry and ethnic mixes in the province, provincial amenities and regional controls, using province-level data obtained from the National Census and China Statistical Press for the 1980s and 1990s. We find strong evidence that migration rates rise with the size of the destination province's migrant community. Foreign and domestic investments influence migration patterns, but sometimes in unexpected ways. We find that as economic reforms in China deepened in the 1990s, the structure of internal migration did not change as much as earlier studies have suggested. Consequently, our results raise new questions about the World's largest-scale test case of internal migration and strongly suggest a need for further research.