Oil spill models are used to simulate the evolution of an oil slick that occurs after an accidental ship collision, malfunctioning of oil extraction platforms, or illegal discharges intentionally released by ships into the marine environment. We present an integrated operational oil spill prediction system that improves capacities in preventing and mitigating maritime risks from oil spills. The objective is to provide forecast information about the transport and the fate of a hypothetical oil spill under Nearly-Real Time hydrodynamic conditions in the western and central Mediterranean Sea. This complex forecast system is developed in the framework of the project SOS-Piattaforme & Impatti Off-Shore to the needs of Italian Coast Guard and other institutions, such as the Ministry of the Environment. This service has been operational since July 2020. The innovative aspect of this work is a graphical user interface (the GUI), which allows to select properties, time, and location of a potential oil spill and show the evolution of oil slick concentration and oil fate parameters. This platform represents the first component of a future Decision Support System aimed to identify the risk assessment of oil spills in order to better manage emergencies and minimize economic damages.

The Western Mediterranean basin (WMED) is characterized by the presence of energetic and dynamic mesoscale cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. They mainly originate along the Algerian and the Northern currents and have a large influence on the basin circulation. Eddies can last for months, with longer lifetimes associated with the anticyclones, which can move far from their areas of origin. As they partially isolate and transfer water masses, they also have an impact on water properties (physical, chemical and biological), pollutant’s dispersion and transport of eggs, larvae and planktonic organisms. In this study, a connectivity analysis method is applied to the anticyclonic eddies (AEs) identified by an automated hybrid detection and tracking algorithm south of 42°N in the WMED. The same methodology is also applied to the trajectories of Lagrangian surface drifters available in the study area. The purpose is to highlight the connections between different areas of the basin linked to eddy activities in addition to the connectivity due to the mean surface circulation. Drifter data analysis showed that all the WMED sub-basins are strongly interconnected, with the mean surface circulation allowing a shortcut connection among many areas of the basin. The connectivity analysis of the AEs tracks shows that although AEs are ubiquitous in the WMED, their connectivity is limited to well-defined regions, depending on their origin location. Three main regions: the south-western, the south-eastern and the northern parts of the basin are characterized by AEs recirculation, with sporadic export of eddies to the other WMED zones.

Maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment were the primary objectives of two European projects that the National Research Council of Italy had participated in, with numerical applications in two areas located in the northern part of Sardinia, Italy. Specifically, two operational Numerical Prediction Systems (NPS) for pollution risk management were developed; the first was applied to the area of the Bonifacio Strait and the Gulf of Asinara and the second to the port of Olbia. These systems are composed of many oceans and particle tracking numerical models. They are forced with meteorological and ocean data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Copernicus Marine Service and their outputs have been compared with in situ measurements for preliminary calibration. A web graphical interface was ad hoc designed, specifically responding to projects’ needs, providing online access to a 3-day oceanographic forecast and advanced diagnostic variables like Oil Stranding Time, Risk Score and Water Age. These products, along with the interactive web platform, prove invaluable for marine spatial planning, prevention and emergency management at sea, for the use of competent governmental and local bodies.