In response to increasing Arctic temperatures, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowlands, polygonal ice wedges are especially prone to degradation. Melting of ice wedges results in deepening troughs and the transition from low-centered to high-centered ice-wedge polygons. This process has important implications for surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such troughs determines the rate of drainage for these lowland landscapes. In this study, we present a comprehensive, modular, and highly automated workflow to extract, to represent, and to analyze remotely sensed ice-wedge polygonal trough networks as a graph (i.e., network structure). With computer vision methods, we efficiently extract the trough locations as well as their geomorphometric information on trough depth and width from high-resolution digital elevation models and link these data within the graph. Further, we present and discuss the benefits of graph analysis algorithms for characterizing the erosional development of such thaw-affected landscapes. Based on our graph analysis, we show how thaw subsidence has progressed between 2009 and 2019 following burning at the Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska, USA. We observed a considerable increase in the number of discernible troughs within the study area, while simultaneously the number of disconnected networks decreased from 54 small networks in 2009 to only six considerably larger disconnected networks in 2019. On average, the width of the troughs has increased by 13.86%, while the average depth has slightly decreased by 10.31%. Overall, our new automated approach allows for monitoring ice-wedge dynamics in unprecedented spatial detail, while simultaneously reducing the data to quantifiable geometric measures and spatial relationships.

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to ‘predict’ the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km² each, or 400 km² in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

The end-Permian mass extinction occurred alongside a large swath of environmental changes that are often invoked as extinction mechanisms, even when a direct link is lacking. One way to elucidate the cause(s) of a mass extinction is to investigate extinction selectivity, as it can reveal critical information on organismic traits as key determinants of extinction and survival. Here we show that machine learning algorithms, specifically gradient boosted decision trees, can be used to identify determinants of extinction as well as to predict extinction risk. To understand which factors led to the end-Permian mass extinction during an extreme global warming event, we quantified the ecological selectivity of marine extinctions in the well-studied South China region. We find that extinction selectivity varies between different groups of organisms and that a synergy of multiple environmental stressors best explains the overall end-Permian extinction selectivity pattern. Extinction risk was greater for genera that had a low species richness, narrow bathymetric ranges limited to deep-water habitats, a stationary mode of life, a siliceous skeleton, or, less critically, calcitic skeletons. These selective losses directly link the extinctions to the environmental effects of rapid injections of carbon dioxide into the ocean–atmosphere system, specifically the combined effects of expanded oxygen minimum zones, rapid warming, and potentially ocean acidification.

Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are highly vulnerable to warming, with rapid changes underway. High-resolution remote sensing, especially aerial datasets, offers valuable insights into current permafrost characteristics and thaw dynamics. Here, we present a new dataset of very high resolution orthomosaics, point clouds, and digital surface models that we acquired over permafrost landscapes in northwestern Canada and northern and northwestern Alaska for the purpose of better understanding the impacts of climate change on permafrost landscapes. The imagery was collected with the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS) during aerial campaigns conducted by the Alfred Wegener Institute in the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. The MACS was specifically developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for operation under challenging light conditions in polar environments. It features cameras in the optical and the near-infrared wavelengths with up to a 16 MP resolution. We processed the images to four-band (blue–green–red–near-infrared) orthomosaics and digital surface models with spatial resolutions of 7 to 20 cm as well as 3D point clouds with point densities of up to 41 points m⁻². The dataset collection features 102 subprojects from 35 target regions (1.4–161.1 km² in size). Project sizes range from 4.8 to 336 GB. In total, 3.17 TB were published. The horizontal precision of the datasets is in the range of 1–2 px and vertical precision is better than 0.10 m. The datasets are not radiometrically calibrated. Overall, these very high resolution images and point clouds provide significant opportunities for mapping permafrost landforms and generating detailed training datasets for machine learning, can serve as a baseline for change detection for thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes, and help with upscaling of field measurements to lower-resolution satellite observations. The dataset is available on the PANGAEA repository at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.961577 (Rettelbach et al., 2024).

On 29 June 2022, local observers reported the drainage of a 0.5 ha lake near Qikiqtaġruk (Kotzebue), Alaska, that prompted this collaborative study on the life cycle of a thermokarst lake in the Arctic. Prior to its drainage, the lake expanded from 0.13 ha in 1951 to 0.54 ha in 2021 at lateral rates that ranged from 0.25 to 0.35 m/year. During the drainage event, we estimate that 18,500 m³ of water drained from the lake into Kotzebue Sound, forming a 125-m-long thermo-erosional gully that incised 2 to 14 m in ice-rich permafrost. Between 29 June and 18 August 2022, the drainage gully expanded from 1 m to >10 m wide, mobilizing ~8,500 m³ of material through erosion and thaw. By reconstructing a pre-lake disturbance terrain model, we show that thaw subsidence occurs rapidly (0.78 m/year) upon transition from tundra to lake but that over a seventy-year period it slows to 0.12 m/year. The combination of multiple remote sensing tools and local environmental observations provided a rich data set that allowed us to assess rates of lake expansion relative to rates of sub-lake permafrost thaw subsidence as well as hypothesizing about the potential role of beavers in arctic lake drainage.