In Germany, modelled nitrate concentrations in the leachate are of great importance for the development of scenarios for the long-term achievement of the groundwater quality target according to the specific requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive as well as within the context of the recently adopted general administrative regulation for the designation of nitrate-polluted areas in Germany. For the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP), an area-covering modelling of mean long-term nitrate concentrations in leachate with high spatial resolution was carried out using the model system RAUMIS-mGROWA-DENUZ. Hotspot regions with nitrate concentrations in the leachate of 50 mg NO₃/L and more were identified for intensively farmed areas in the Münsterland, Lower Rhine, and Vorderpfalz. The validity of modelled values was checked using measured values from 1119 preselected monitoring stations from shallow springs and aquifers filtered near to the surface with oxidizing properties. For the land use categories of urban areas, arable land, grassland, and forest, an at least good agreement of modelled nitrate concentrations in the leachate and measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater was obtained at numerous sites. An equally good agreement was obtained for 1461 measuring stations from the area of responsibility of the Erftverband, which is a major water supplier in the Lower Rhine region. Here, discrepancies have been analyzed in detail due to profound regional knowledge on observation sites. It turned out that in most cases, accuracy limitations of input data (e.g., N balance surpluses of agriculture at the municipal level, 1:50,000 soil map) have been the reason for larger deviations between observed and modelled values. In a broader sense, the case study has shown on the one hand that the model system RAUMIS-mGROWA-DENUZ is able to reliably represent interrelationships and influencing factors that determine simulated nitrate concentrations in the leachate. On the other hand, it has been proven that observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater may provide a solid data source for checking the plausibility of modelled nitrate concentrations in leachate in cases where certain preselection criteria are applied.

The input of nutrients into surface waters and groundwater is directly linked to runoff components. Due to the different physicochemical behaviour of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, the individual runoff components have different significance as input pathways. Within the scope of the Germany-wide project AGRUM-DE, spatially differentiated runoff components were modelled with the water balance model mGROWA at a resolution of 100 m. The modelled distributed runoff components include total runoff, surface runoff, drainage runoff, natural interflow, direct runoff from urban areas, and groundwater recharge. Although the mGROWA model operates in daily time steps, modelled runoff components can be aggregated to mean long-term hydrologic reference periods—for this study, 1981–2010. We obtained good model agreement through the comparison of measured discharge from 298 river gauges against the spatial means of the modelled runoff components over their corresponding catchment areas. Therefore, the model results provide reliable input for input pathway-specific modelling of actual nutrient inputs as well as scenario analyses expected from the application of nutrient reduction initiatives. This ensures that any differences in the model results stem exclusively from differences in nutrient supply (fertilisation of the soils) and not from climatic effects, such as the influence of wet or dry years.

Zusammenfassung: Mit einem Multi-Modell-Ensemble wurde analysiert, wie sich der Klimawandel auf den Grundwasserhaushalt in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) auswirkt. Hierzu wurden Projektionen der zukünftigen Grundwasserneubildung für insgesamt 36 Mitglieder der Modellkette RCP-GCM-RCM-mGROWA, bestehend aus 3 RCP-Szenarien zukünftiger globaler Erwärmung, 6 globalen und 5 dynamischen regionalen Klimamodellen sowie dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell mGROWA, vorgenommen. Mit dem Ensemble wurden für die hydrogeologischen Großräume NRWs nur teilweise signifikante Änderungen der jährlichen Grundwasserneubildung in den Perioden 2011–2040, 2041–2070 und 2071–2100 projiziert. Ein Robustheitstest mit zwei Kriterien (Übereinstimmung und Signifikanz der Änderungssignale) liefert keine belastbare Begründung dafür, dass sich die Grundwasserneubildung bis 2100 systematisch und signifikant ändern wird. Aus statistischer Perspektive wird deshalb die Schlussfolgerung gezogen, dass in NRW langfristig eine Grundwasserneubildung erwartet werden kann, die sich nicht grundlegend vom Niveau der Periode 1971–2000 unterscheidet. Hydro-meteorologisch befindet sich NRW in einer Übergangszone, in der eine Zunahme der Winterniederschläge die Wirkung der Erwärmung auf die Grundwasserneubildung wahrscheinlich kompensiert.

For the first time, the AGRUM model consortium—consisting of the agro-economic model RAUMIS, the water balance model mGROWA, the hydrological nutrient transport models DENUZ, WeKu and MEPhos, and the urban emission model MONERIS—was jointly set up throughout Germany (357,000 km²). This provided a nationwide consistent nutrient model to capture the current status of N and P inputs to surface waters from diffuse sources and urban areas. Diffuse nutrient emissions were quantified in high spatial resolution for the input pathways’ groundwater, drainage runoff, and natural interflow (100 m × 100 m), as well as for water erosion and wash-off (25 m × 25 m). The sum of diffuse nutrient inputs to surface waters is about 385,000 metric tons N/yr and ca. 11,530 metric tons P/yr. Urban emissions were quantified either as point source inputs (wastewater treatment plants, industrial direct dischargers) or at municipality scale for different collection and treatment systems, e.g., rainwater sewers or decentralized treatment plants, and sum up to ca. 95,000 t N/yr and 7500 t P/yr. As modelled, total N and P inputs into surface waters correspond well with observed N and P loads in rivers. The model results represent valuable information for water managers, being responsible for the preparation of management plans for the third management cycle of the EC Water Framework Directive spanning from 2021 to 2027.

For the Hessian river basins, an area-differentiated modeling of the nitrogen input to the groundwater and surface waters was carried out for six diffuse input pathways and six point source input pathways on the basis of the geodata available at the state level. In this context, extensive plausibility checks of the model results were carried out using the data from several official monitoring networks at the state level. These include the comparison of modeled runoff components and input pathways for nitrogen using the data from the network of discharge monitoring stations. For the validation of the modeled nitrate concentrations in the leachate, the data from groundwater monitoring wells for controlling the chemical status of groundwater were used. The validation of the modeled nitrate inputs to the groundwater and denitrification in the groundwater was carried out using the data from a special monitoring network of groundwater monitoring wells that include N₂/Ar measurements. The data from the Surface Water Quality Monitoring Network were used to verify the plausibility of the modeled total N inputs to the surface waters from diffuse sources and from point sources. All of the model results evaluated by the plausibility checks prove that the nitrate pollution situation in Hesse is adequately represented by the model. This is a prerequisite for accepting the model results at the state level as a basis for developing and implementing regionally appropriate mitigation measures. The Hessian State Agency for Nature Conservation, Environment and Geology uses the model results in the broader context of the work on implementing the EU Water Framework Directive and the EU Nitrate Directive.