Drought is an extremely dangerous natural hazard that causes water crises, crop yield reduction, and ecosystem fires. Researchers have developed many drought indices based on ground-based climate data and various remote sensing data. Ground-based drought indices are more accurate but limited in coverage; while the remote sensing drought indices cover larger areas but have poor accuracy. Applying data-driven models to fuse multi-source remote sensing data for reproducing composite drought index may help fill this gap and better monitor drought in terms of spatial resolution. Machine learning methods can effectively analyze the hierarchical and non-linear relationships between the independent and dependent variables, resulting in better performance compared with traditional linear regression models. In this study, seven drought impact factors from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensor, Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used to reproduce the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for Shandong province, China, from 2002 to 2020. Three machine learning methods, namely bias-corrected random forest (BRF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and support vector machines (SVM) were applied as regression models. Then, the best model was used to construct the spatial distribution of SPEI. The results show that the BRF outperforms XGBoost and SVM in SPEI estimation. The BRF model can effectively monitor drought conditions in areas without ground observation data. The BRF model provides comprehensive drought information by producing a spatial distribution of SPEI, which provides reliability for the BRF model to be applied in drought monitoring.

Accurate estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) over croplands on a regional scale can provide useful information for agricultural management. The hybrid ET model that combines the physical framework, namely the Penman-Monteith equation and machine learning (ML) algorithms, have proven to be effective in ET estimates. However, few studies compared the performances in estimating ET between multiple hybrid model versions using different ML algorithms. In this study, we constructed six different hybrid ET models based on six classical ML algorithms, namely the K nearest neighbor algorithm, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting algorithm, artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), using observed data of 17 eddy covariance flux sites of cropland over the globe. Each hybrid model was assessed to estimate ET with ten different input data combinations. In each hybrid model, the ML algorithm was used to model the stomatal conductance (G_s), and then ET was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation, along with the ML-based G_s. The results showed that all hybrid models can reasonably reproduce ET of cropland with the models using two or more remote sensing (RS) factors. The results also showed that although including RS factors can remarkably contribute to improving ET estimates, hybrid models except for LSTM using three or more RS factors were only marginally better than those using two RS factors. We also evidenced that the ANN-based model exhibits the optimal performance among all ML-based models in modeling daily ET, as indicated by the lower root-mean-square error (RMSE, 18.67–21.23 W m⁻²) and higher correlations coefficient (r, 0.90–0.94). ANN are more suitable for modeling G_s as compared to other ML algorithms under investigation, being able to provide methodological support for accurate estimation of cropland ET on a regional scale.