Brazil is a tropical country that is largely covered by rainforests and other natural ecosystems, which provide ideal conditions for the existence of many arboviruses. However, few analyses have examined the associations between environmental factors and arboviral diseases. Thus, based on the hypothesis of correlation between environment and epidemiology, the proposals of this study were (1) to obtain the probability of occurrence of Oropouche, Mayaro, Saint Louis and Rocio fevers in Brazil based on environmental conditions corresponding to the periods of occurrence of the outbreaks; (2) to describe the macroclimatic scenario in Brazil in the last 50 years, evaluating if there was any detectable tendency to increase temperatures and (3) to model future expansion of those arboviruses in Brazil based on future temperature projections. Our model assessed seven environmental factors (annual rainfall, annual temperature, elevation, seasonality of temperature, seasonality of precipitation, thermal amplitude, and daytime temperature variation) for their association with the occurrence of outbreaks in the last 50 years. Our results suggest that various environmental factors distinctly influence the distribution of each arbovirus, with temperature being the central determinant of disease distribution in all high-risk areas. These areas are subject to change, since the average temperature of some areas has increased significantly over the time. This is the first spatio-temporal study of the Oropouche, Mayaro, Saint Louis, and Rocio arboviruses, and our results indicate that they may become increasingly important public health problems in Brazil. Thus, next studies and control programs should include these diseases and also take into consideration key environmental elements. The Oropouche, Mayaro, Saint Louis, and Rocio viruses are neglected emerging mosquito-borne viruses that are spreading and causing wide-scale epidemics in South America. However, under-reporting of these cases is possible, as the symptoms are shared with other endemic diseases. Moreover, little is known regarding environmental conditions that favor these tropical outbreaks of arboviral diseases. This study examined the association of environmental factors with the probability of occurrence of Oropouche, Mayaro, Saint Louis and Rocio fever outbreaks (present and future) and finds that temperature is a central variable that determines the distribution of high-risk areas. This fact is very worrying, because the average temperature of some areas has increased significantly over the time. Results from this study strongly suggest that these four diseases have the potential to become important public health problems or become increasingly relevant in Brazil and other tropical areas in the coming years and should be monitored as part of effective control programs.