Superinfection with Plasmodium species increases the risk of fatal disease in individuals with low immunity, yet it is not frequent in young children. Portugal et al. provide a possible explanation for this dichotomy, showing that blood-stage parasitemia in mice inhibits liver-stage development of a second Plasmodium species infection due to iron sequestration. In regions of high rates of malaria transmission, mosquitoes repeatedly transmit liver-tropic Plasmodium sporozoites to individuals who already have blood-stage parasitemia1. This manifests itself in semi-immune children (who have been exposed since birth to Plasmodium infection and as such show low levels of peripheral parasitemia but can still be infected) older than 5 years of age by concurrent carriage of different parasite genotypes at low asymptomatic parasitemias2. Superinfection presents an increased risk of hyperparasitemia and death in less immune individuals but counterintuitively is not frequently observed in the young3,4. Here we show in a mouse model that ongoing blood-stage infections, above a minimum threshold, impair the growth of subsequently inoculated sporozoites such that they become growth arrested in liver hepatocytes and fail to develop into blood-stage parasites. Inhibition of the liver-stage infection is mediated by the host iron regulatory hormone hepcidin5, whose synthesis we found to be stimulated by blood-stage parasites in a density-dependent manner. We mathematically modeled this phenomenon and show how density-dependent protection against liver-stage malaria can shape the epidemiological patterns of age-related risk and the complexity of malaria infections seen in young children. The interaction between these two Plasmodium stages and host iron metabolism has relevance for the global efforts to reduce malaria transmission and for evaluation of iron supplementation programs in malaria-endemic regions.

Microbial virulence is a complex and often multifactorial phenotype, intricately linked to a pathogen’s evolutionary trajectory. Toxicity, the ability to destroy host cell membranes, and adhesion, the ability to adhere to human tissues, are the major virulence factors of many bacterial pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus. Here, we assayed the toxicity and adhesiveness of 90 MRSA (methicillin resistant S. aureus) isolates and found that while there was remarkably little variation in adhesion, toxicity varied by over an order of magnitude between isolates, suggesting different evolutionary selection pressures acting on these two traits. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and identified a large number of loci, as well as a putative network of epistatically interacting loci, that significantly associated with toxicity. Despite this apparent complexity in toxicity regulation, a predictive model based on a set of significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion and deletions events (indels) showed a high degree of accuracy in predicting an isolate’s toxicity solely from the genetic signature at these sites. Our results thus highlight the potential of using sequence data to determine clinically relevant parameters and have further implications for understanding the microbial virulence of this opportunistic pathogen.

Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%–25% (all simulations: –3%–34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%–25% (all simulations: 10%– 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.

Antibiotic resistance has emerged as one of the most pressing, global threats to public health. In single-species experiments selection for antibiotic resistance occurs at very low antibiotic concentrations. However, it is unclear how far these findings can be extrapolated to natural environments, where species are embedded within complex communities. We competed isogenic strains of Escherichia coli, differing exclusively in a single chromosomal resistance determinant, in the presence and absence of a pig faecal microbial community across a gradient of antibiotic concentration for two relevant antibiotics: gentamicin and kanamycin. We show that the minimal selective concentration was increased by more than one order of magnitude for both antibiotics when embedded in the community. We identified two general mechanisms were responsible for the increase in minimal selective concentration: an increase in the cost of resistance and a protective effect of the community for the susceptible phenotype. These findings have implications for our understanding of the evolution and selection of antibiotic resistance, and can inform future risk assessment efforts on antibiotic concentrations.