Concrete carbonation is known as a stochastic process. Its uncertainties mainly result from parameters that are not considered in prediction models. Parameter selection, therefore, is important. In this paper, based on 8204 sets of data, statistical methods and machine learning techniques were applied to choose appropriate influence factors in terms of three aspects: (1) the correlation between factors and concrete carbonation; (2) factors’ influence on the uncertainties of carbonation depth; and (3) the correlation between factors. Both single parameters and parameter groups were evaluated quantitatively. The results showed that compressive strength had the highest correlation with carbonation depth and that using the aggregate–cement ratio as the parameter significantly reduced the dispersion of carbonation depth to a low level. Machine learning models manifested that selected parameter groups had a large potential in improving the performance of models with fewer parameters. This paper also developed machine learning carbonation models and simplified them to propose a practical model. The results showed that this concise model had a high accuracy on both accelerated and natural carbonation test datasets. For natural carbonation datasets, the mean absolute error of the practical model was 1.56 mm.

Machine learning techniques have become a popular solution to prediction problems. These approaches show excellent performance without being explicitly programmed. In this paper, 448 sets of data were collected to predict the neutralization depth of concrete bridges in China. Random forest was used for parameter selection. Besides this, four machine learning methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and XGBoost, were adopted to develop models. The results show that machine learning models obtain a high accuracy (>80%) and an acceptable macro recall rate (>80%) even with only four parameters. For SVM models, the radial basis function has a better performance than other kernel functions. The radial basis kernel SVM method has the highest verification accuracy (91%) and the highest macro recall rate (86%). Besides this, the preference of different methods is revealed in this study.