A nonlinear association between serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk has been suggested in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). To develop and externally validate a prognostic model for HCC risk in noncirrhotic adult patients with CHB and no notable alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation. Multinational cohort study. A community-based cohort in Taiwan (REVEAL-HBV [Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus]; REACH-B [Risk Estimation for HCC in CHB] model cohort) and 8 hospital-based cohorts from Korea and Hong Kong (GAG-HCC [Guide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA-HCC] and CU-HCC [Chinese University-HCC] cohorts). Model development: 6949 patients with CHB from a Korean hospital-based cohort. External validation: 7429 patients with CHB combined from the Taiwanese cohort and 7 cohorts from Korea and Hong Kong. Incidence of HCC. Over median follow-up periods of 10.0 and 12.2 years, the derivation and validation cohorts identified 435 and 467 incident HCC cases, respectively. Baseline HBV DNA level was one of the strongest predictors of HCC development, demonstrating a nonlinear parabolic association in both cohorts, with moderate viral loads (around 6 log₁₀ IU/mL) showing the highest HCC risk. Additional predictors included in the new model (Revised REACH-B) were age, sex, platelet count, ALT levels, and positive hepatitis B e antigen result. The model exhibited satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with c-statistics of 0.844 and 0.813 in the derivation and validation cohorts with multiple imputation, respectively. The model yielded a greater positive net benefit compared with other strategies in the 0% to 18% threshold. Validation in cohorts of other races and receiving antiviral treatment was lacking. Our new prognostic model, based on the nonlinear association between HBV viral loads and HCC risk, provides a valuable tool for predicting and stratifying HCC risk in noncirrhotic patients with CHB who are not currently indicated for antiviral treatment. Korean government.

Background: The platelet-to-white blood cell ratio (PWR) is a hematologic marker of the systemic inflammatory response. Recently, the PWR was revealed to have a role as an independent prognostic factor for mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) and HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) with acute decompensation (AD). However, the prognostic role of the PWR still needs to be investigated in LC patients with AD. In this study, we analyzed whether the PWR could stratify the risk of adverse outcomes (death or liver transplantation (LT)) in these patients. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1670 patients with AD of liver cirrhosis ((age: 55.2 ± 7.8, male = 1226 (73.4%)) was enrolled and evaluated for 28-day and overall adverse outcomes. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.0 months (range, 1.9–15.5 months), 424 (25.4%) patients had adverse outcomes (death = 377, LT = 47). The most common etiology of LC was alcohol use (69.7%). The adverse outcome rate was higher for patients with a PWR ≤ 12.1 than for those with a PWR > 12.1. A lower PWR level was a prognostic factor for 28-day adverse outcomes (PWR: hazard ratio 1.707, p = 0.034) when adjusted for the etiology of cirrhosis, infection, ACLF, and the MELD score. In the subgroup analysis, the PWR level stratified the risk of 28-day adverse outcomes regardless of the presence of ACLF or the main form of AD but not for those with bacterial infection. Conclusions: A lower PWR level was associated with 28-day adverse outcomes, indicating that the PWR level can be a useful and simple tool for stratifying the risk of 28-day adverse outcomes in LC patients with AD.

Backgrounds/Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cancer and second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in South Korea. This study evaluated the characteristics of Korean patients newly diagnosed with HCC in 2016-2018.Methods: Data from the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry (KPLCR), a representative database of patients newly diagnosed with HCC in South Korea, were analyzed. This study investigated 4,462 patients with HCC registered in the KPLCR in 2016-2018.Results: The median patient age was 63 years (interquartile range, 55-72). 79.7% of patients were male. Hepatitis B infection was the most common underlying liver disease (54.5%). The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system classified patients as follows: stage 0 (14.9%), A (28.8%), B (7.5%), C (39.0%), and D (9.8%). The median overall survival was 3.72 years (95% confidence interval, 3.47-4.14), with 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates of 71.3%, 54.1%, and 44.3%, respectively. In 2016-2018, there was a significant shift toward BCLC stage 0-A and Child-Turcotte-Pugh liver function class A (P<0.05), although survival rates did not differ by diagnosis year. In the treatment group (n=4,389), the most common initial treatments were transarterial therapy (31.7%), surgical resection (24.9%), best supportive care (18.9%), and local ablation therapy (10.5%).Conclusions: Between 2016 and 2018, HCC tended to be diagnosed at earlier stages, with better liver function in later years. However, since approximately half of the patients remained diagnosed at an advanced stage, more rigorous and optimized HCC screening strategies should be implemented.

Jong-In Chang, Jung Hee Kim, Dong Hyun Sinn, Ju-Yeon Cho, Kwang Min Kim, Joo Hyun Oh, Yewan Park, Won Sohn, Myung Ji Goh, Wonseok Kang, Geum-Youn Gwak, Yong-Han Paik, Moon Seok Choi, Joon Hyeok Lee, Kwang Cheol Koh, and Seung-Woon Paik. Gut and Liver 2023;17:620-8. https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl220420

Background: The European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium suggested that the clinical courses after acute decompensation (AD) stratify the long-term prognosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre ACLF), and ACLF. However, previous studies included patients with a history of previous AD and had limitations associated with identifying the clinical factors related to prognosis after the first AD. Method: The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort included cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD between July 2015 and August 2018. We analysed the factors associated with readmission after the first AD and compared the characteristics and prognosis among each subgroup to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of pre ACLF after AD. Result: A total of 746 cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD were enrolled. The subgroups consisted of SDC (n = 565), UDC (n = 29), pre ACLF (n = 28), and ACLF (n = 124). Of note, pre ACLF showed a poorer prognosis than ACLF. The risk factors associated with readmission within 3 months of first AD were non-variceal gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and high MELD score. Viral aetiology was associated with the occurrence of pre ACLF compared with alcohol aetiology regardless of baseline liver function status. Conclusion: Cirrhotic patients with first AD who present as non-variceal GI bleeding and HE can easily relapse. Interestingly, the occurrence of AD with organ failure within 3 months of first AD (pre ACLF) has worse prognosis compared with the occurrence of organ failure at first AD (ACLF). In particular, cirrhotic patients with viral hepatitis with/without alcohol consumption showed poor prognosis compared to other aetiologies. Therefore, patients with ACLF after AD within 3 months should be treated more carefully and definitive treatment through LT should be considered.