Flows along the upper Qu’Appelle River are expected to increase in the future via increased discharge from Lake Diefenbaker to meet the demands of increased agricultural and industrial activity and population growth in southern Saskatchewan. This increased discharge and increased air temperature due to climate change are both expected to have an impact on the water quality of the river. The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP7) was used to model current and future water quality of the upper Qu’Appelle River. The model was calibrated and validated to characterize the current state of the water quality of the river. The model was then used to predict water quality [nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations and oxygen dynamics] for the years 2050–2055 and 2080–2085. The modelling results indicate that global warming will result in a decrease in ice thickness, a shorter ice cover period, and decreased nutrient concentrations in 2050 or 2080 relative to 2010, with a greater decrease of nutrient concentrations in open water. In contrast to the effect of warmer water temperatures, increased flow through water management may cause increases in ammonium, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen concentrations and decreases in orthophosphate concentrations in summer.

A global sensitivity analysis was carried out on a water quality model to quantify the spatial changes in parameter sensitivity of a model of a large prairie river, the South Saskatchewan River (SSR). The method is used to assess the relative impacts of major nutrient loading sources and a reservoir on the river’s water quality. The river completely freezes over during winter; hence, the sensitivity analysis was carried out seasonally, for winter and summer, to account for the influence of ice-covered conditions on nutrient transformations. Furthermore, the integrity of the river’s aquatic ecosystem was examined through the inter-relationship between variables and comparing hierarchy index values and water quality indices at four locations along the river. Sensitivities of model parameters varied slightly at different locations along the river, with the phytoplankton growth rate being the most influential parameter. Nitrogen and phosphorus transformation processes were more sensitive in winter, while chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen parameters showed higher sensitivity in summer. A more complicated correlation between variables was observed downstream of the junction of the Red Deer River. Our results reveal that the lower correlation between variables may suggest a more balanced and healthier system, although further analysis is needed to support this statement.