Climatic change is dramatically altering phenology but generalities regarding tempo and mode of response remain limited. Here we present a general model framework incorporating spring temperature, velocity of spring warming, and species’ thermal requirements for predicting phenological response to warming. A key prediction of this framework is that species active earlier in the season and located in warmer regions where spring temperature velocity is lowest show strongest sensitivity to climatic change and greatest advancement in response to warming. We test this prediction using plant phenology datasets collected in the 1850s and 2010s. Our results strikingly confirm model predictions, showing that while temperature sensitivity is higher in regions with low temperature velocity, the greatest realized change in phenological onset is northern areas where warming rates have been fastest. Our framework offers enhanced utility for predicting phenological sensitivity and responsiveness in temperate regions and across multiple plant species and potentially other groups.

Florida lies within a subtropical region where the climate allows diverse mosquito species including invasive species to thrive year-round. As of 2021, there are currently 66 state-approved Florida Mosquito Control Districts, which are major stakeholders for Florida public universities engaged in mosquito research. Florida is one of the few states with extensive organized mosquito control programs. The Florida State Government and Florida Mosquito Control Districts have long histories of collaboration with research institutions. During fall 2020, we carried out a survey to collect baseline data on the current control priorities from Florida Mosquito Control Districts relating to (1) priority control species, (2) common adult and larval control methods, and (3) major research questions to address that will improve their control and surveillance programs. The survey data showed that a total of 17 distinct mosquito species were considered to be priority control targets, with many of these species being understudied. The most common control approaches included truck-mounted ultra-low-volume adulticiding and biopesticide-based larviciding. The districts held interest in diverse research questions, with many prioritizing studies on basic science questions to help develop evidence-based control strategies. Our data highlight the fact that mosquito control approaches and priorities differ greatly between districts and provide an important point of comparison for other regions investing in mosquito control, particularly those with similar ecological settings, and great diversity of potential mosquito vectors, such as in Florida. Our findings highlight a need for greater alignment of research priorities between mosquito control and mosquito research. In particular, we note a need to prioritize filling knowledge gaps relating to understudied mosquito species that have been implicated in arbovirus transmission.

Aedes scapularis is a neotropical mosquito known to transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance. Its recent establishment in southeastern Florida has potential public health implications. We used an ecological niche modeling approach to predict the abiotic environmental suitability for Ae. scapularis across much of the Americas and Caribbean Islands. Georeferenced occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Inventory Facility and recent collection records of Ae. scapularis from southern Florida served as input for model calibration. Environmental layers included bioclimatic variables provided in 2000 to 2010 average Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications climatic (MERRAclim) data. Models were run in the software program Maxent. Isothermality values often found in costal environments, had the greatest contribution to model performance. Model projections suggested that there are areas predicted to be suitable for Ae. Scapularis across portions of the Amazon Basin, the Yucatán Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, and multiple Caribbean Islands. Additionally, model predictions suggested connectivity of highly suitable or relatively suitable environments spanning the United States Gulf Coast, which may facilitate the geographic expansion of this species. At least sixteen Florida counties were predicted to be highly suitable for Ae. scapularis, suggesting that vigilance is needed by vector control and public health agencies to recognize the further spread of this vector.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus with important livestock and human health, and economic consequences across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Climate and vegetation monitoring guide RVFV forecasting models and early warning systems; however, these approaches make monthly predictions and a need exists to predict primary vector abundances at finer temporal scales. In Kenya, an important primary RVFV vector is the mosquito Aedes mcintoshi. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multimodel averaging approach with georeferenced Ae. mcintoshi mosquito counts and remotely sensed climate and topographic variables to predict where and when abundances would be high in Kenya and western Somalia. The data supported a positive effect on abundance of minimum wetness index values within 500 m of a sampling site, cumulative precipitation values 0 to 14 days prior to sampling, and elevated land surface temperature values ~3 weeks prior to sampling. The probability of structural zero counts of mosquitoes increased as percentage clay in the soil decreased. Weekly retrospective predictions for unsampled locations across the study area between 1 September and 25 January from 2002 to 2016 predicted high abundances prior to RVFV outbreaks in multiple foci during the 2006–2007 epizootic, except for two districts in Kenya. Additionally, model predictions supported the possibility of high Ae. mcintoshi abundances in Somalia, independent of Kenya. Model-predicted abundances were low during the 2015–2016 period when documented outbreaks did not occur, although several surveillance systems issued warnings. Model predictions prior to the 2018 RVFV outbreak indicated elevated abundances in Wajir County, Kenya, along the border with Somalia, but RVFV activity occurred west of the focus of predicted high Ae. mcintoshi abundances.

There is an increased awareness of the importance of data publication, data sharing, and open science to support research, monitoring and control of vector-borne disease (VBD). Here we describe the efforts of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) as well as the World Health Special Programme on Research and Training in Diseases of Poverty (TDR) to promote publication of data related to vectors of diseases. In 2020, a GBIF task group of experts was formed to provide advice and support efforts aimed at enhancing the coverage and accessibility of data on vectors of human diseases within GBIF. Various strategies, such as organizing training courses and publishing data papers, were used to increase this content. This editorial introduces the outcome of a second call for data papers partnered by the TDR, GBIF and GigaScience Press in the journal GigaByte. Biodiversity and infectious diseases are linked in complex ways. These links can involve changes from the microorganism level to that of the habitat, and there are many ways in which these factors interact to affect human health. One way to tackle disease control and possibly elimination, is to provide stakeholders with access to a wide range of data shared under the FAIR principles, so it is possible to support early detection, analyses and evaluation, and to promote policy improvements and/or development.