Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.

Understanding crop phenology is crucial for predicting crop yields and identifying potential risks to food security. The objective was to investigate the effectiveness of satellite sensor data, compared to field observations and proximal sensing, in detecting crop phenological stages. Time series data from 122 winter wheat, 99 silage maize, and 77 late potato fields were analyzed during 2015–2017. The spectral signals derived from Digital Hemispherical Photographs (DHP), Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC), and Sentinel-2 (S2) were crop-specific and sensor-independent. Models fitted to sensor-derived fAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) demonstrated a higher goodness of fit as compared to fCover (fraction of vegetation cover), with the best model fits obtained for maize, followed by wheat and potato. S2-derived fAPAR showed decreasing variability as the growing season progressed. The use of a double sigmoid model fit allowed defining inflection points corresponding to stem elongation (upward sigmoid) and senescence (downward sigmoid), while the upward endpoint corresponded to canopy closure and the maximum values to flowering and fruit development. Furthermore, increasing the frequency of sensor revisits is beneficial for detecting short-duration crop phenological stages. The results have implications for data assimilation to improve crop yield forecasting and agri-environmental modeling.

Intra-field heterogeneity of soil properties, such as soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P), exchangeable cations, pH, or soil texture, is a function of complex interactions between biological factors, physical factors, and historic agricultural management. Mapping the crop growth and final yield heterogeneity and quantifying their link with soil properties can contribute to an optimization of amendment/fertilizer application and crop yield in a management variable zones (MVZ) approach. To this end, we studied a field of 17 ha consisting of four former fields that were merged in early 2017 and cropped with winter wheat in 2018. Historical management practices data were collected. The topsoil characteristics were analyzed by grid-based sampling and kriged to create maps. We tested the capacity of a multispectral MicaSense^® RedEdge-M^TM camera sensor embedded on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to map in-season growth of winter wheat. Relating several vegetation indices (VIs) to the plant area index (PAI) measured in the field highlighted the red-edge NDVI (RENDVI) as the most suitable to follow the crop growth throughout the growing season. The georeferenced final grain yield of the winter wheat was measured by a combine harvester. The spatial patterns in RENDVI at three phenological stages were mapped and analyzed together with the yield map. For each of these images a conditional inference forest (CI-forest) algorithm was used to identify the soil properties significantly influencing these spatial patterns. Historical management practices of the four former fields have induced significant heterogeneity in soil properties and crop growth. The spatial patterns of RENDVI are rather constant over time and their Spearman rank correlation with yield is similar along the growing season (r ≃ 0.7). Soil properties explain between 87% (mid-March) to 78% (mid-May) of the variance in RENDVI throughout the growing season, as well as 66% of the variance in yield. The pH and exchangeable K are the most significant factors explaining from 15 to 26% of the variance in crop growth. The methodology proposed in this paper to quantify the importance of soil parameters based on the CI-forest algorithm can contribute to a better management of amendment/fertilizer inputs by stressing the most important parameters to take into consideration for site-specific management. We also showed that heterogeneity induced by the soil properties can be described by a crop map early in the season and that this crop map can be used to optimize soil sampling and thus amendment/fertilizer management.

Accurate information about the available standing biomass on pastures is critical for the adequate management of grazing and its promotion to farmers. In this paper, machine learning models are developed to predict available biomass expressed as compressed sward height (CSH) from readily accessible meteorological, optical (Sentinel-2) and radar satellite data (Sentinel-1). This study assumed that combining heterogeneous data sources, data transformations and machine learning methods would improve the robustness and the accuracy of the developed models. A total of 72,795 records of CSH with a spatial positioning, collected in 2018 and 2019, were used and aggregated according to a pixel-like pattern. The resulting dataset was split into a training one with 11,625 pixellated records and an independent validation one with 4952 pixellated records. The models were trained with a 19-fold cross-validation. A wide range of performances was observed (with mean root mean square error (RMSE) of cross-validation ranging from 22.84 mm of CSH to infinite-like values), and the four best-performing models were a cubist, a glmnet, a neural network and a random forest. These models had an RMSE of independent validation lower than 20 mm of CSH at the pixel-level. To simulate the behavior of the model in a decision support system, performances at the paddock level were also studied. These were computed according to two scenarios: either the predictions were made at a sub-parcel level and then aggregated, or the data were aggregated at the parcel level and the predictions were made for these aggregated data. The results obtained in this study were more accurate than those found in the literature concerning pasture budgeting and grassland biomass evaluation. The training of the 124 models resulting from the described framework was part of the realization of a decision support system to help farmers in their daily decision making.