In this paper, we introduce a new, local formulation of the ensemble Kalman filter approach for atmospheric data assimilation. Our scheme is based on the hypothesis that, when the Earth’s surface i...

European CH4 and N2O emissions are estimated for 2006 and 2007 using four inverse modelling systems, based on different global and regional Eulerian and Lagrangian transport models. This ensemble approach is designed to provide more realistic estimates of the overall uncertainties in the derived emissions, which is particularly important for verifying bottom-up emission inventories. We use continuous observations from 10 European stations (including 5 tall towers) for CH4 and 9 continuous stations for N2O, complemented by additional European and global discrete air sampling sites. The available observations mainly constrain CH4 and N2O emissions from north-western and eastern Europe. The inversions are strongly driven by the observations and the derived total emissions of larger countries show little dependence on the emission inventories used a priori. Three inverse models yield 26–56% higher total CH4 emissions from north-western and eastern Europe compared to bottom-up emissions reported to the UNFCCC, while one model is close to the UNFCCC values. In contrast, the inverse modelling estimates of European N2O emissions are in general close to the UNFCCC values, with the overall range from all models being much smaller than the UNFCCC uncertainty range for most countries. Our analysis suggests that the reported uncertainties for CH4 emissions might be underestimated, while those for N2O emissions are likely overestimated.

Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/ fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objectiv... Abstract Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/ fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objectiv...

A 3D-variational data assimilation scheme for a quasi-geostrophic channel model (Morss, 1998) is used to study the structure of the background error and its relationship to the corresponding bred vectors. The "true" evolution of the model atmosphere is defined by an integration of the model and "rawinsonde observations" are simulated by randomly perturbing the true state at fixed locations. Case studies using different observational densities are considered to compare the evolution of the Bred Vectors to the spatial structure of the background error. In addition, the bred vector dimension (BV-dimension), defined by Patil et al. (2001) is applied to the bred vectors. It is found that after 3-5 days the bred vectors develop well organized structures which are very similar for the two different norms (enstrophy and streamfunction) considered in this paper. When 10 surrogate bred vectors (corresponding to different days from that of the background error) are used to describe the local patterns of the background error, the explained variance is quite high, about 85-88%, indicating that the statistical average properties of the bred vectors represent well those of the background error. However, a subspace of 10 bred vectors corresponding to the time of the background error increased the percentage of explained variance to 96-98%, with the largest percentage when the background errors are large. These results suggest that a statistical basis of bred vectors collected over time can be used to create an effective constant background error covariance for data assimilation with 3D-Var. Including the "errors of the day" through the use of bred vectors corresponding to the background forecast time can bring an additional significant improvement.

We describe the setup and first results of an inverse modelling system for atmospheric N₂O, based on a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) technique and the atmospheric transport zoom model TM5. We focus in this study on the European domain, utilizing a comprehensive set of quasi-continuous measurements over Europe, complemented by N₂O measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL) cooperative global air sampling network. Despite ongoing measurement comparisons among networks parallel measurements at a limited number of stations show that significant offsets exist among the different laboratories. Since the spatial gradients of N₂O mixing ratios are of the same order of magnitude as these biases, the direct use of these biased datasets would lead to significant errors in the derived emissions. Therefore, in order to also use measurements with unknown offsets, a new bias correction scheme has been implemented within the TM5-4DVAR inverse modelling system, thus allowing the simultaneous assimilation of observations from different networks. The N₂O bias corrections determined in the TM5-4DVAR system agree within ~0.1 ppb (dry-air mole fraction) with the bias derived from the measurements at monitoring stations where parallel NOAA discrete air samples are available. The N₂O emissions derived for the northwest European and east European countries for 2006 show good agreement with the bottom-up emission inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Moreover, the inverse model can significantly narrow the uncertainty range reported in N₂O emission inventories for these countries, while the lack of measurements does not allow to reduce the uncertainties of emission estimates in southern Europe. Several sensitivity experiments were performed to test the robustness of the results. It is shown that also inversions without detailed a priori spatio-temporal emission distributions are capable to reproduce major regional emission patterns within the footprint of the existing atmospheric network, demonstrating the strong constraints of the atmospheric observations on the derived emissions.

Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2000–2007 and inter-hemispheric gradients indicate that a significant fraction of terrestrial carbon sequestration must be north of the Equator. We present a compilation of the CO₂, CO, CH₄ and N₂O balances of Europe following a dual constraint approach in which (1) a land-based balance derived mainly from ecosystem carbon inventories and (2) a land-based balance derived from flux measurements are compared to (3) the atmospheric data-based balance derived from inversions constrained by measurements of atmospheric GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations. Good agreement between the GHG balances based on fluxes (1294 ± 545 Tg C in CO₂-eq yr⁻¹), inventories (1299 ± 200 Tg C in CO₂-eq yr⁻¹) and inversions (1210 ± 405 Tg C in CO₂-eq yr⁻¹) increases our confidence that the processes underlying the European GHG budget are well understood and reasonably sampled. However, the uncertainty remains large and largely lacks formal estimates. Given that European net land to atmosphere exchanges are determined by a few dominant fluxes, the uncertainty of these key components needs to be formally estimated before efforts could be made to reduce the overall uncertainty. The net land-to-atmosphere flux is a net source for CO₂, CO, CH₄ and N₂O, because the anthropogenic emissions by far exceed the biogenic sink strength. The dual-constraint approach confirmed that the European biogenic sink removes as much as 205 ± 72 Tg C yr⁻¹ from fossil fuel burning from the atmosphere. However, This C is being sequestered in both terrestrial and inland aquatic ecosystems. If the C-cost for ecosystem management is taken into account, the net uptake of ecosystems is estimated to decrease by 45% but still indicates substantial C-sequestration. However, when the balance is extended from CO₂ towards the main GHGs, C-uptake by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is offset by emissions of non-CO₂ GHGs. As such, the European ecosystems are unlikely to contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change.