Reliable energy supply becomes increasingly complex in hybrid energy networks, due to increasing amounts of renewable electricity and more dynamic demand. Accurate modeling of integrated electricity and gas distribution networks is required to quantify operational bottlenecks in these networks and to increase security of supply. In this paper, we propose a hybrid network solver to model integrated electricity and gas distribution networks. A stochastic method is proposed to calculate the security of supply throughout the networks, taking into account the likelihood of events, operational constraints and dynamic supply and demand. The stochastic method is evaluated on a real gas network case study. The calculated security of supply parameters provide insight into the most critical parts of the network and can be used for future network planning. The capabilities of the coupled hybrid energy network simulation are demonstrated on the real gas network coupled to a simplified electricity network. Results demonstrate how combined simulation of electricity and gas networks facilitate the control design and performance evaluation of regional hybrid energy networks.

The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties in input parameters. Additionally, due to changes in the system in time and in order to increase the accuracy and robustness of the prediction, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to update the flow rate predictions based on new observations. The developed approach was tested on the data from two mature gas production wells in which their production is highly dynamic and suffering from salt deposition. The results show that the flow predictions using the EnKF updated model leads to better Jeffreys' J-divergences than the predictions without the EnKF model updating scheme.