With the proposed goals of reaching its “carbon peak” by 2030 and becoming “carbon neutral” by 2060, China will comprehensively build a diversified, efficient and clean energy system. The differences in China’s resource endowments have made the development of carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry uncoordinated in various regions. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the method for measuring thermal power carbon emission efficiency and determine the impact of regional development imbalances on the carbon emission efficiency of thermal power. For this article, we used the stochastic frontier analysis method and selected a variety of influencing factors as technical inefficiency items. After that, we measured the thermal power carbon emission efficiency in 30 provinces and municipalities (autonomous regions) in China in the past 10 years, and it was found that the efficiency was increasing yearly and showed obvious spatial differences. The impact of the clean energy substitution effect on the thermal power carbon emission efficiency cannot be ignored. After performing a coupled and coordinated analysis on the efficiency of thermal carbon emission in various regions and its influencing factors, the three indicators of power consumption intensity, urbanization level and clean energy substitution effect were selected. The weight of the indicator subsystem was determined in view of the estimation of the technical inefficiency. The results of the coupling and coordination analysis show that the degree of coupling and coordination of thermal power carbon emission efficiency is increasing yearly and presents a distribution of “high in the eastern region and low in the western region”. Therefore, all provinces need to vigorously carry out clean replacement work to enhance the coordinated development of carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry and the level of regional economic development.

Under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal, Shanxi Province adjusts the power supply structure and promotes the development of a high proportion of new energy, which has a certain impact on the demand for thermal coal. Therefore, constructing a reasonable forecasting model for thermal coal demand can play a role in stabilizing coal supply and demand. This paper analyzes various factors related to coal demand, and uses Pearson coefficient to screen out six variables with strong correlation. Then, based on the scenario analysis method, combined with the “14th Five-Year Plan” of Shanxi Province, different scenarios of economic development and carbon emission reduction development are set. Finally, a multi-scenario GA–LSSVM forecasting model of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is constructed, and the future development trend of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is predicted. The results show that the demand for thermal coal is the largest in the mode of high-speed economic development and low emission reduction, and the demand for thermal coal is the lowest in the mode of low-speed economic development and strong emission reduction, which provides a scientific basis for the implementation of Shanxi Province’s thermal coal supply policy.

An electricity substitution strategy that replaces fossil fuels such as coal and oil with electricity in end-use energy consumption, can effectively contribute to an energy transition and the early achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. As the benefits of electricity substitution are not synchronized across China’s regions, this paper uses a three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to measure the efficiency of electric energy substitution in 30 provinces of China in 2017. The results show that both environmental factors and random errors have significant effects on energy efficiency. After eliminating these influences, the efficiency of electrical energy substitution among regions presented the following pattern: “high in the east and low in the west”. According to the evaluation results, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions for the development of electrical energy substitution.