Purpose: To refine stage and prognostic group for human papillomavirus (HPV) –related nonmetastatic (M0) oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Methods: All patients with nonmetastatic (M0) p16-confirmed OPC treated with radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy from 2000 to 2010 were included. Overall survival (OS) was compared among TNM stages for patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPC separately. For HPV-related OPC, recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) derived new RPA stages objectively. Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) to derive AHR stages. The performance of survival prediction of RPA stage and AHR stage was assessed against the current seventh edition TNM stages. Prognostic groups were derived by RPA, combining RPA stage and nonanatomic factors. Results: The cohort comprised 573 patients with HPV-related OPC and 237 patients with HPV-unrelated OPC, with a median follow-up of 5.1 years. Lower 5-year OS with higher TNM stage was evident for patients with HPV-unrelated OPC (stage I, II, III, and IV 5-year OS: 70%, 58%, 50%, and 30%, respectively; P = .004) but not for patients with HPV-related OPC (stage I, II, III, and IV 5-year OS: 88%, 78%, 71%, and 74%, respectively; P = .56). RPA divided HPV-related OPC into RPA-I (T1-3N0-2b), RPA-II (T1-3N2c), and RPA-III (T4 or N3; 5-year OS: 82%, 76%, and 54%, respectively; P < .001). AHR also yielded a valid classification, but RPA stage demonstrated better survival prediction. A further RPA (including RPA stage, age, and smoking pack-years [PYs]) derived the following four valid prognostic groups for survival: group I (T1-3N0-N2c_≤ 20 PY), group II (T1-3N0-N2c_> 20 PY), group III (T4 or N3_age ≤ 70), and group IVA (T4 or N3_age > 70; 5-year OS: 89%, 64%, 57%, and 40%, respectively; P < .001). Conclusion: An RPA-based TNM stage grouping (stage I/II/III: T1-3N0-N2b/T1-3N2c/T4 or N3, with M1 as stage IV) is proposed for HPV-related OPC as a result of significantly improved survival prediction compared with the seventh edition TNM, and prognostication is further improved by an RPA-based prognostic grouping within the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control TNM framework for HPV-related OPC.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the pretreatment circulating neutrophil count (CNC), circulating monocyte count (CMC), and circulating lymphocyte count (CLC) in human papillomavirus (HPV)–related (HPV+) and HPV‐unrelated (HPV–) oropharyngeal cancer (OPC).METHODS: All p16‐confirmed HPV+ and HPV– OPC cases treated with chemoradiotherapy from 2000 to 2010 were included. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence‐free survival (RFS) were compared for high and low CNCs, CMCs, and CLCs (dichotomized by median values). A multivariate analysis (MVA) confirmed their prognostic value in HPV+ and HPV– tumors, respectively.RESULTS: Five hundred ten HPV+ OPC cases and 192 HPV– OPC cases were included. The HPV+ cohort had lower CNC and CMC values but a CLC similar to that of the HPV– patients (P < .01). The median follow‐up was 4.8 years. In the HPV+ cohort, a high CNC or CMC correlated with reduced OS and RFS in comparison with a low CNC or CMC (P < .01 for all), but no difference was evident in OS (P = .30) or RFS (P = .10) with the CLC. MVA confirmed that a higher CNC or CMC independently predicted lower OS (hazard ratio [HR] for CNC, 1.14,P < .01; HR for CMC, 2.95,P < .01) and lower RFS (HR for CNC, 1.11,P < .01; HR for CMC, 3.39,P < .01), whereas a higher CLC was associated with higher RFS (HR, 0.66,P = .03) and marginally higher OS (HR, 0.80,P = .08). In the HPV– cohort, CNC, CMC, and CLC were not predictive of OS (P = .16,P = .86, andP = .14) or RFS (P = .61,P = .59, andP = .62).CONCLUSIONS: This relatively large cohort study demonstrates that a high CNC and a high CMC independently predict inferior OS and RFS, whereas a high CLC predicts better RFS and marginally better OS in HPV+ OPC patients. This association was not apparent in HPV– patients.Cancer2015;121:545–555.©2014 American Cancer Society.