Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences.

Water use in the United States reached its lowest level in 2015 in at least four decades. National trends, however, mask local challenges throughout the U.S. In some places, decreases in surface water use were more than offset by increases in groundwater use, leading to net increases in total withdrawals. Other places have seen increasing rates of water shortages caused by mixes of socioeconomic and climate forces. This study examines recent trends in freshwater use and makes projections in future freshwater use over the next 50 years. Projections are based on socioeconomic and climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Scenarios are paired with five climate models from the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA). We find total consumptive water use will decrease by as much as 8% under the best‐case scenario but increase by as much as 235% under the worst‐case scenario. Results depend on both climate and socioeconomic changes, but because agriculture is the dominant use of water in most regions, climate change impacts overwhelm all other factors under hot and dry futures. For the wetter climate models, water use decreases even under the highest emissions levels and highest population growth rates.

While the subset of introduced species that become invasive is small, the damages caused by that subset and the costs of controlling them can be substantial. This chapter takes an in-depth look at the economic damages non-native species cause, methods economists often use to measure those damages, and tools used to assess invasive species policies. Ecological damages are covered in other chapters of this book. To put the problem in perspective, Federal agencies reported spending more than half a billion dollars per year in 1999 and 2000 for activities related to invasive species ($513.9 million in 1999 and $631.5 million in 2000 (U.S. GAO 2000)). Approximately half of these expenses were spent on prevention. Several states also spend considerable resources on managing non-native species; for example, Florida spent $127.6 million on invasive species activities in 2000 (U.S. GAO 2000), and the Great Lakes states spend about $20 million each year to control sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) (Kinnunen 2015). Costs to government may not be the same as actual damages, which generally fall disproportionately on a few economic sectors and households. For example, the impact of the 2002 outbreak of West Nile virus exceeded $4 million in damages to the equine industries in Colorado and Nebraska alone (USDA APHIS 2003) and more than $20 million in public health damages in Louisiana (Zohrabian et al. 2004). Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) cause $300–$500 million annually in damages to power plants, water systems, and industrial water intakes in the Great Lakes region (Great Lakes Commission 2012) and are expected to cause $64 million annually in damages should they or quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) spread to the Columbia River basin (Warziniack et al. 2011).