Significance: The western United States (WUS) has experienced a rapid increase of fire weather (as indicated by vapor pressure deficit, VPD) in recent decades, especially in the warm season. However, the extent to which an increase of VPD is due to natural variability or anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Our observation-based estimate suggests ∼one-third of the VPD trend is attributable to natural variability of atmospheric circulation, whereas ∼two-thirds is explained by anthropogenic warming. In addition, climate models attribute ∼90% of the VPD trend to anthropogenic warming. Both estimates suggest that anthropogenic warming is the main cause for increasing fire weather and provide a likely range for the true anthropogenic contribution to the WUS trend in VPD.

Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop a climate-driven model of summer BA evolution in California and combine it with natural-only and historical climate simulations to assess the importance of anthropogenic climate change on increased BA. Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change as historical model simulations accounting for anthropogenic forcing yield 172% (range 84 to 310%) more area burned than simulations with natural forcing only. We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, a 3 to 52% increase in BA relative to the last decades is expected in the next decades (2031 to 2050), highlighting the need for proactive adaptations.

Historically, meteorological drought in the western United States (WUS) has been driven primarily by precipitation deficits. However, our observational analysis shows that, since around 2000, rising surface temperature and the resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%) over the WUS than precipitation deficit. This increase in evaporative demand during droughts, mostly attributable to anthropogenic warming according to analyses of both observations and climate model simulations, is the main cause of the increased drought severity and coverage. The unprecedented 2020–2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought drivers, with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit. Climate model simulations corroborate this shift and project that, under the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), droughts like the 2020–2022 event will transition from a one-in-more-than-a-thousand-year event in the pre-2022 period to a 1-in-60-year event by the mid-21st century and to a 1-in-6-year event by the late-21st century.

The onset and demise of the rainy season in Amazonia are assessed in this study using meteorological data from the GoAmazon experiment, with a focus on the 2014–2015 rainy season. In addition, global reanalyses are also used to identify changes in circulation leading to the establishment of the rainy season in the region. Our results show that the onset occurred in January 2015, 2–3 pentads later than normal, and the rainy season during the austral summer of 2015 contained several periods with consecutive dry days in both Manacapuru and Manaus, which are not common for the wet season, and resulted in below-normal precipitation. The onset of the rainy season has been strongly associated with changes in large-scale weather conditions in the region due to the effect of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Regional thermodynamic indices and the height of the boundary layer did not present a significant difference between the onset and demise of the wet season of 2015. This suggests that local changes, such as those in the regional thermodynamic characteristics, may not have influenced its onset. Thus, variability of the large-scale circulation was responsible for regional convection and rainfall changes in Amazonia during the austral summer of 2014–2015.

We developed an entraining parcel approach that partitions parcel buoyancy into contributions from different processes (e.g., adiabatic cooling, condensation, freezing, and entrainment). Applying this method to research-quality radiosonde profiles provided by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at six sites, we evaluated how atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and entrainment influence various physical processes that determine the vertical buoyancy structure across different climate regimes as represented by these sites. The differences of morning buoyancy profiles between the deep convection (DC)/transition cases and shallow convection (SC)/nontransition cases were used to assess preconditions important for shallow-to-deep convection transition. Our results show that for continental sites such as the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) and west-central Africa, surface conditions alone are enough to account for the buoyancy difference between DC and SC cases, although entrainment further enhances the buoyancy difference at SGP. For oceanic sites in the tropical west Pacific, humidity dilution in the lower to middle free troposphere (~1–6 km) and temperature mixing in the middle to upper troposphere (>4 km) have the most important influences on the buoyancy difference between DC and SC cases. For the humid central Amazon region, entrainment in both the boundary layer and the lower free troposphere (~0–4 km) have significant contributions to the buoyancy difference; the upper-tropospheric influence seems unimportant. In addition, the integral of the condensation term, which represents the parcel’s ability to transform available water vapor into heat through condensation, provides a better discrimination between DC and SC cases than the integral of buoyancy or the convective available potential energy (CAPE).