The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985–2005), the Sundarbans – mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level – is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000–2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81–178 km², 111–376 km² and 583–1393 km² for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of ±2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (<10 % of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process.

The Indian Sundarbans, together with Bangladesh, comprise the largest mangrove forest in the world. Reclamation of the mangroves in this region ceased in the 1930s. However, they are still subject to adverse environmental influences, such as sediment starvation due to migration of the main river channels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta over the last few centuries, cyclone landfall, wave action from the Bay of Bengal—changing hydrology due to upstream water diversion—and the pervasive effects of relative sea-level rise. This study builds on earlier work to assess changes from 2000 to 2020 in mangrove extent, genus composition, and mangrove ‘health’ indicators, using various vegetation indices derived from Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery by performing maximum likelihood supervised classification. We show that about 110 km² of mangroves disappeared within the reserve forest due to erosion, and 81 km² were gained within the inhabited part of Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) through plantation and regeneration. The gains are all outside the contiguous mangroves. However, they partially compensate for the losses of the contiguous mangroves in terms of carbon. Genus composition, analyzed by amalgamating data from published literature and ground-truthing surveys, shows change towards more salt-tolerant genus accompanied by a reduction in the prevalence of freshwater-loving Heiritiera, Nypa, and Sonneratia assemblages. Health indicators, such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), show a monotonic trend of deterioration over the last two decades, which is more pronounced in the sea-facing parts of the mangrove forests. An increase in salinity, a temperature rise, and rainfall reduction in the pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon periods appear to have led to such degradation. Collectively, these results show a decline in mangrove area and health, which poses an existential threat to the Indian Sundarbans in the long term, especially under scenarios of climate change and sea-level rise. Given its unique values, the policy process should acknowledge and address these threats.

The paper through a critical appraisal of the agricultural practices in the Indian Sundarban deltaic region explores the tripartite problems of arsenic biomagnification, salinity of arable lands and ingress of agrochemical pollutants into the freshwater resources, which endanger the health, livelihood and food security of the rural population inhabiting the delta. The threefold problem has rendered a severe blow to the agrarian economy consequently triggering large-scale outmigration of the rural population from the region. Although recent studies have addressed these issues separately, the inter-connectivity among these elements and their possible long-term impact upon sustainability in the Sundarbans are yet to be elucidated. In the current scenario, the study emphasizes that the depleting freshwater resources is at the heart of the threefold problems affecting the Sundarbans. Owing to the heavy siltation of the local river systems, freshwater resources from the local ravines have salinized beyond the point of being used for agricultural purposes. At the same time, increasing salinity levels resulting from fluctuation of pre- and post-monsoon rainfall, frequent cyclones and capillary movement of salinized groundwater (primarily during theRabiseason) have severely hampered the agricultural practices. Salinization of above groundwater reserves has forced the farmers toward utilization of groundwater, which are lifted using STWs, especially for rice and other cultivations in theRabiseason. The Holocene aquifers of the region retain toxic levels of arsenic which are lifted during the irrigation process and are deposited on to the agricultural fields, resulting in bioaccumulation of As in the food products resourced from the area. The compound effect of consuming arsenic-contaminated food and drinking water has resulted in severe health issues recorded among the local population in the delta. Furthermore, due to the sub-optimal conditions for sustaining agriculture under saline stress, farmers often opt for the cultivation of post-green revolution high-yielding varieties, which require additional inputs of nitrogen-based fertilizers, organophosphate herbicides and pesticides that are frequently washed away by runoff from the watershed into the low-lying catchment areas of the biosphere reserve. Such practices have endangered the vulnerable conditions of local flora and fauna. In the present situation, the study proposes mitigation strategies which necessitate the smart use of locally obtainable resources like water, adaptable cultivars and sustainable agronomic practices like organic farming. The study also suggests engaging of conventional plant breeding strategies such as “Evolutionary plant breeding” for obtaining cultivars adapted to the shifting ecological conditions of the delta in the long run.

Mangroves are active carbon sequesters playing a crucial role in coastal ecosystems. In the present study, aboveground biomass (AGB) was estimated in a 5-year-old Avicennia marina plantation (approximate area $≈190ha$) of Indian Sundarbans using high-resolution satellite data in order to assess its carbon sequestration potential. The reflectance values of each band of LISS IV satellite data and the vegetation indices, viz., normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), optimized soil adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI), and transformed difference vegetation index (TDVI), derived from the satellite data, were correlated with the AGB. OSAVI showed the strongest positive linear relationship with the AGB and hence carbon content of the stand. OSAVI was found to predict the AGB to a great extent ($r2=0.72$) as it is known to nullify the background soil reflectance effect added to vegetation reflectance. The total AGB of the entire plantation was estimated to be 236 metric tons having a carbon stock of 54.9 metric tons, sequestered within a time span of 5 years. Integration of this technique for monitoring and management of young mangrove plantations will give time and cost effective results.