Increasing knowledge about signal transduction pathways as drivers of cancer growth has elicited the development of “targeted drugs,” which inhibit aberrant signaling pathways. They require a companion diagnostic test that identifies the tumor-driving pathway; however, currently available tests like estrogen receptor (ER) protein expression for hormonal treatment of breast cancer do not reliably predict therapy response, at least in part because they do not adequately assess functional pathway activity. We describe a novel approach to predict signaling pathway activity based on knowledge-based Bayesian computational models, which interpret quantitative transcriptome data as the functional output of an active signaling pathway, by using expression levels of transcriptional target genes. Following calibration on only a small number of cell lines or cohorts of patient data, they provide a reliable assessment of signaling pathway activity in tumors of different tissue origin. As proof of principle, models for the canonical Wnt and ER pathways are presented, including initial clinical validation on independent datasets from various cancer types. Cancer Res; 74(11); 2936–45. ©2014 AACR.

Signal transduction pathways are important in physiology and pathophysiology. Targeted drugs aim at modifying pathogenic pathway activity, e.g., in cancer. Optimal treatment choice requires assays to measure pathway activity in individual patient tissue or cell samples. We developed a method enabling quantitative measurement of functional pathway activity based on Bayesian computational model inference of pathway activity from measurements of mRNA levels of target genes of the pathway-associated transcription factor. Oestrogen receptor, Wnt, and PI3K-FOXO pathway assays have been described previously. Here, we report model development for androgen receptor, Hedgehog, TGFβ, and NFκB pathway assays, biological validation on multiple cell types, and analysis of data from published clinical studies (multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, contact dermatitis, Ewing sarcoma, lymphoma, medulloblastoma, ependymoma, skin and prostate cancer). Multiple pathway analysis of clinical prostate cancer (PCa) studies showed increased AR activity in hyperplasia and primary PCa but variable AR activity in castrate resistant (CR) PCa, loss of TGFβ activity in PCa, increased Wnt activity in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion protein-positive PCa, active PI3K pathway in advanced PCa, and active PI3K and NFκB as potential hormonal resistance pathways. Potential value for future clinical practice includes disease subtyping and prediction and targeted therapy response prediction and monitoring.

Endocrine therapy is important for management of patients with estrogen receptor (ER)–positive breast cancer; however, positive ER staining does not reliably predict therapy response. We assessed the potential to improve prediction of response to endocrine treatment of a novel test that quantifies functional ER pathway activity from mRNA levels of ER pathway–specific target genes. ER pathway activity was assessed on datasets from three neoadjuvant-treated ER-positive breast cancer patient cohorts: Edinburgh: 3-month letrozole, 55 pre-/2-week/posttreatment matched samples; TEAM IIa: 3- to 6-month exemestane, 49 pre-/28 posttreatment paired samples; and NEWEST: 16-week fulvestrant, 39 pretreatment samples. ER target gene mRNA levels were measured in fresh-frozen tissue (Edinburgh, NEWEST) with Affymetrix microarrays, and in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples (TEAM IIa) with qRT-PCR. Approximately one third of ER-positive patients had a functionally inactive ER pathway activity score (ERPAS), which was associated with a nonresponding status. Quantitative ERPAS decreased significantly upon therapy (P < 0.001 Edinburgh and TEAM IIa). Responders had a higher pretreatment ERPAS and a larger 2-week decrease in activity (P = 0.02 Edinburgh). Progressive disease was associated with low baseline ERPAS (P = 0.03 TEAM IIa; P = 0.02 NEWEST), which did not decrease further during treatment (P = 0.003 TEAM IIa). In contrast, the staining-based ER Allred score was not significantly associated with therapy response (P = 0.2). The ERPAS identified a subgroup of ER-positive patients with a functionally inactive ER pathway associated with primary endocrine resistance. Results confirm the potential of measuring functional ER pathway activity to improve prediction of response and resistance to endocrine therapy.

Recent advances in Internet and grid technologies have greatly enhanced scientific experiments' life cycle. In addition to compute- and data-intensive tasks, large-scale collaborations involving geographically distributed scientists and e-infrastructure are now possible. Scientific workflows, which encode the logic of experiments, are becoming valuable resources. Sharing these resources and letting scientists worldwide work together on one experiment is essential for promoting knowledge transfer and speeding up the development of scientific experiments. Here, the authors discuss the challenges involved in supporting collaborative e-Science experiments and propose support for different phases of the scientific experimentation life cycle.

Previously, a pulse wave propagation model was developed that has potential in supporting decision-making in arteriovenous fistula (AVF) surgery for hemodialysis. To adapt the wave propagation model to personalized conditions, patient-specific input parameters should be available. In clinics, the number of measurable input parameters is limited which results in sparse datasets. In addition, patient data are compromised with uncertainty. These uncertain and incomplete input datasets will result in model output uncertainties. By means of a sensitivity analysis the propagation of input uncertainties into output uncertainty can be studied which can give directions for input measurement improvement. In this study, a computational framework has been developed to perform such a sensitivity analysis with a variance-based method and Monte Carlo simulations. The framework was used to determine the influential parameters of our pulse wave propagation model applied to AVF surgery, with respect to parameter prioritization and parameter fixing. With this we were able to determine the model parameters that have the largest influence on the predicted mean brachial flow and systolic radial artery pressure after AVF surgery. Of all 73 parameters 51 could be fixed within their measurement uncertainty interval without significantly influencing the output, while 16 parameters importantly influence the output uncertainty. Measurement accuracy improvement should thus focus on these 16 influential parameters. The most rewarding are measurement improvements of the following parameters: the mean aortic flow, the aortic windkessel resistance, the parameters associated with the smallest arterial or venous diameters of the AVF in- and outflow tract and the radial artery windkessel compliance.

Estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer patients are eligible for hormonal treatment, but only around half respond. A test with higher specificity for prediction of endocrine therapy response is needed to avoid hormonal overtreatment and to enable selection of alternative treatments. A novel testing method was reported before that enables measurement of functional signal transduction pathway activity in individual cancer tissue samples, using mRNA levels of target genes of the respective pathway-specific transcription factor. Using this method, 130 primary breast cancer samples were analyzed from non-metastatic ER+ patients, treated with surgery without adjuvant hormonal therapy, who subsequently developed metastatic disease that was treated with first-line tamoxifen. Quantitative activity levels were measured of androgen and estrogen receptor (AR and ER), PI3K-FOXO, Hedgehog (HH), NFκB, TGFβ, and Wnt pathways. Based on samples with known pathway activity, thresholds were set to distinguish low from high activity. Subsequently, pathway activity levels were correlated with the tamoxifen treatment response and progression-free survival. High ER pathway activity was measured in 41% of the primary tumors and was associated with longer time to progression (PFS) of metastases during first-line tamoxifen treatment. In contrast, high PI3K, HH, and androgen receptor pathway activity was associated with shorter PFS, and high PI3K and TGFβ pathway activity with worse treatment response. Potential clinical utility of assessment of ER pathway activity lies in predicting response to hormonal therapy, while activity of PI3K, HH, TGFβ, and AR pathways may indicate failure to respond, but also opens new avenues for alternative or complementary targeted treatments.