In this study, we evaluated the present and future irrigation potential and irrigation water requirement (IWR) in Ethiopia’s Abbay River Basin using the MIKE HYDRO River modeling software. Relative changes in IWR were determined and analyzed at six irrigation nodes for 19 crops and 23 traits. Four irrigation scenarios were compared: low, medium, full (FULL), and high growth (HIGH). Significant IWR changes were observed in FULL and HIGH irrigation scenarios, with highly intensive irrigation conditions resulting in high IWR. The MIKE HYDRO model was used to simulate the IWR historically for two scenarios: (1) scenario representing the current total irrigable cropland (79,800 ha) and (2) scenario projecting the basin’s potential cropland (658,384 ha). As a result, the area under IWR analysis was 738,184 ha. The annual IWR was 9 billion cubic meters (BCM) and 18 BCM in FULL and HIGH irrigation scenarios, respectively. We found that uncertainties in crop migration, cropping patterns, and adaptation rates to climate change significantly affected irrigation and crop production. It is necessary to investigate the effects of HIGH irrigation on yield and economic benefits of FULL irrigation before adopting different irrigation development methods. Further research is required to adapt to changing climate for development of targeted IWR strategies.

This study investigated the Water-Energy relationship in the Nile River Basin under changing climate conditions using an energy and water model. Climate change will likely affect both water and energy resources, which will create challenges for future planning and decision making, particularly considering the uncertainty surrounding the direction and magnitude of such effects. According to the assessment model, when countries depend heavily on hydropower for energy, power generation is determined by climate variability. For example, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are more hydropower-dependent than Burundi or Rwanda. As a result, the trading relationships and economic gains of these countries shift according to climate variability. Among 18 climate scenarios, four demonstrate a change in climate and runoff. Under these scenarios, trading partnerships and economic gains will favor Ethiopia and Egypt instead of Sudan and Egypt. This study examines the extent of potential climate challenges, their effects on the Nile River Basin, and recommends several solutions for environmental planners and decision makers. Although the proposed model has the novel ability of conducting scientific analyses with limited data, this research is still limited by data accessibility. Finally, the study will contribute to the literature on the climate chamber effects on regional and international trade.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia and High Aswan Dam (HAD) in Egypt both operate on the Nile River, independent of a governing international treaty or agreement. As a result, the construction of the GERD, the Earth's eighth largest dam, ignited a furious debate among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on its filling policies and long-term operation. Ethiopia and Egypt's stance on the Nile River's water resources, combined with a nationalistic policy debate on the GERD's filling policies and long-term operation, has severely affected progress toward reaching agreeable terms before the first round of GERD filling was completed. These three countries continue to debate on the terms of agreement for the second round of GERD filling, scheduled to start by July 2021. We examined the GERD filling strategy for five- and six-year terms using time series data for the periods 1979–1987 and 1987–1992 to combine analyses for dry and wet seasons and investigate the potential impacts of filling the GERD above the downstream HAD using four HAD starting water levels. A model calibrated using MIKE Hydro results shows that during both five- and six-year terms of future GERD filling, Egypt would not need to invoke the HAD's minimum operating level. We pursued a narrative approach that appeals to both a technical and non-technical readership, and our results show the urgent need for cooperation at both policy and technical levels to mitigate and adapt to future climate change through the development of climate-proof agreements. Moreover, the results call for the riparian countries to move away from the current nationalistic policy debate approach and pursue a more cooperative, economically beneficial, and climate adaptive approach.