To investigate precise nexus between land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) and driving factors for rational urban management, we used remotely sensed images to map land use and land cover (LULC) from 1990 to 2010 for four time periods using Wuhan city, China, as a case study. Partial least squares (PLS) method was applied to analyze the relationships between LUCC and the driving factors, mainly focusing on three types of LULC, that is, arable land, built-up area, and water area. The results were as follows: during the past two decades, the land-use pattern in Wuhan city showed dramatic change. Arable land is made up of the largest part of the total area. The increased built-up land came mainly from the conversion of arable land for the purpose of economic development. Based on the Variable Importance in Projection (VIP), the joint effects of socioeconomic and physical factors on LUCC were dominant, though annual temperature, especially annual precipitation, proved to be less significant to LUCC. Population, tertiary industry proportion, and gross output value of agriculture were the most significant factors for three major types of LULC. This study could help us better understand the driving mechanism of urban LUCC and important implications for urban management.

Rapid urbanization is responsible for the increased vulnerability of land systems and the loss of many crucial ecosystem services. Land systems are typical complex systems comprised of different land use types which interact with each other and respond to external environment processes (such as urbanization), resulting in dynamics in land systems. This work develops a methodology approach by integrating complex networks and disruptive scenarios and applies it to a case study area (Wuhan City in China) to explore the effects of urbanization on land system structural vulnerability. The land system network topologies of Wuhan City during five time periods from 1990 to 2015 are extracted. Our results reveal that (1) the urban land expands at a higher speed than the urban population in Wuhan City; (2) the period of 2005–2010 has witnessed more land area conversions from ecological lands to urban land than other periods; (3) the land system is more vulnerable to intentional attacks on nodes with higher integrated node centrality and larger land area, such as paddy, dryland, and lake; and (4) the network efficiency of the land system would decline sharply if the area shrinkage of paddy, dryland, and lake is larger than 30%, 50%, and 20%, respectively. The results provide some insights into building a resilient urban land system, such as increasing the efficiency of existing urban land and controlling the shrinkage rate of important land use types. This study contributes to existing literature on complex networks by expanding its application in land systems, which highlight the potential of complex networks to capture the complexity, dynamics, heterogeneity, and emergent phenomena in land systems.

Forecasting CO₂ emissions is important for climate policy decision making. The paper attempts to implement empirically the long-term forecast of CO₂ emissions based on cointegration theory under the business-as-usual scenario, by using statistical data from China over the period 1953 to 2016. We focus on the relationships between CO₂ emissions for energy consumption and influential factors: per capita GDP, urbanization level, energy intensity, and total energy consumption. The empirical results are presented as follows: (1) continuous increase of carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption (1953-2016) indicates that China has beard great pressure of carbon reduction. (2) Though reduction of carbon intensity in 2020 would account for 50.14% that of 2005, which meets the requirements announced by Chinese government in 2009, China would bear carbon emissions for energy consumption of 14.4853 billion tCO₂ by 2030, which is nearly 1.59 times that of 2016 and nearly 105 times that of 1953. The results suggest that the policymakers in China may take more effective measures such as reducing energy intensities and formulating stricter environmental regulations in order to mitigate the CO₂ emissions and realize the win-win of economic and ecological benefits.

This research examined the spatiotemporal patterns of land-use/cover and the dynamics of ecological capacity in response to land-use/cover change in Wuhan city, central China. The data were derived from five years’ remote-sensed images, that is, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. This paper used an integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS techniques, ecological capacity and the bilateral dynamic degree models. The results are as follows. (1) From 1990 to 2010, remarkable changes in land-use/cover have occurred within the studied area, and the most prominent characteristics of the changes were continuous decline of arable land and rapid increase of built-up land. (2) The total ecological capacity dropped from450.55×104 ghm2in 1990 to447.35×104 ghm2in 2010. The eastern, western, and southern parts had higher ecological capacity whereas the northwestern hilly areas and the central district had lower ecological capacity. (3) Due to the conversion from arable land to built-up land, the ecological capacity losses during 1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010 were155.52×102 ghm2,114.12×102 ghm2,455.48×102 ghm2, and325.26×102 ghm2, respectively. The study would contribute to better understanding of the effects of land-use dynamics and the evolution of ecological capacity, which can provide scientific basis for land management and environment protection.