Roughly 60% of all deforested lands in the Brazilian Amazon are covered with pastures, putting cattle raising in evidence as a major driver of deforestation and also of forests’ regrowth. Still, the role of cattle raising diversity in the landscape dynamics of this region remains poorly understood. To contribute to this discussion, we combined data from semi-structured interviews and quantitative spatially explicit methods to characterize and spatialize cattle raising systems and explore the effects of this diversity over secondary vegetation between 2004 and 2014 in Pará, a hotspot of deforestation and core region of cattle production. We quantified the use of different pasture management strategies to classify small- and large-scale operations into systems with high or low impact against pastures’ degradation. High-impact systems were mapped in regions with consolidated infrastructure and high accumulated deforestation, where they expanded. On the contrary, low-impact systems were more widespread and found near forest frontiers, shrinking over time. High-impact systems had less secondary vegetation, while under low-impact systems, as a result of strategies with little or no effect against degradation, the historical pattern of concentration of this cover prevailed. Better infrastructure and access to markets as well as higher accumulated deforestation are underlying conditions related to the emergence of intensification and, as it is still unclear whether intensification is indeed capable of sparing land, the expansion of intensive cattle raising systems has the potential to configure landscapes with reduced forested areas, either primary or secondary.

Brazil’s zero-deforestation Cattle Agreements (CAs) have influenced the supply chain but their impact on deforestation has been limited in part because slaughterhouses monitor deforestation only on the properties they buy from directly. Consequently, deforestation continues to enter the supply chain indirectly from properties that are not monitored. Knowledge gaps and data limitations have made it challenging to close this loophole and achieve meaningful reductions in deforestation. Here we leverage our large property-level supply chain database that links together six years of records from the Animal Transport Guide (GTA), high-resolution satellite data, property boundaries, and land cover data to quantify different types of supply chain connections and characterize cattle production in Mato Grosso. We find that a relatively small number of high-volume suppliers—defined as the top 5% of cattle suppliers in terms of the volume of cattle sold–supplied 50–60% of the total volume purchased by major slaughterhouses. One-fourth of high-volume direct suppliers cleared forest between 2009–2018, and 90% of them also bought from indirect suppliers with deforestation, leading these high-volume direct suppliers to act as funnels for deforestation into the supply chain. Because they serve as important hubs in the supply chain, high-volume suppliers may represent a key starting point to expand the CAs to cover large numbers of indirect suppliers.

Brazil’s Forest Code (FC) is a landmark law that, despite dating back to the 1930s, has low compliance. Illegal deforestation continues, and millions of hectares that were set to be reforested remain degraded. Although sector agreements such as the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) have been important in the fight against deforestation, the implementation of the FC represents the key long-term strategy to halt deforestation in the soy supply chain. Here, we used datasets of the boundaries of rural properties, deforestation permits, environmental licensing, and land cover in Mato Grosso to quantify illegal deforestation and analyzed compliance with the Forest Code (FC) on soy farms to explore how loopholes in the implementation of the FC allow deforestation to continue unabated. Our analyses show that between August 2009 and July 2019, soy farms in Mato Grosso State, the largest Brazilian soy producer, were responsible for 15% (or 468.1 thousand hectares) of all land cleared in registered properties. Half of this deforestation was illegal. The FC implementation within these properties has been slow: only 11% of registered soy farms have made it to the final stage of the registration process, thus being considered fully compliant. This novel analysis reinforces that accelerating the implementation of the FC could significantly reduce deforestation and advance the restoration of illegally cleared land particularly in the Cerrado, where 50% of the original cover has already been lost, as well as in the Amazon. By achieving full compliance in the soy sector, Brazil’s position in the international market would be strengthened as a supplier of sustainably produced, deforestation-free commodities.