The understanding of infectious diseases is a priority in the field of public health. This has generated the inclusion of several disciplines and tools that allow for analyzing the dissemination of infectious diseases. The aim of this manuscript is to model the spreading of a disease in a population that is registered in a database. From this database, we obtain an edge-weighted graph. The spreading was modeled with the classic SIR model. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics. Moreover, a deterministic approximation is provided. With database COVID-19 from a city in Chile, we analyzed our model with relationship variables between people. We obtained a graph with 3866 vertices and 6,841,470 edges. We fitted the curve of the real data and we have done some simulations on the obtained graph. Our model is adjusted to the spread of the disease. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics, in this case with real data of COVID-19. This valuable information allows us to also include/understand the networks of dissemination of epidemics diseases as well as the implementation of preventive measures of public health. These findings are important in COVID-19’s pandemic context.
The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from thc Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in thc total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of thc disease. Scenario 3, considered thc most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that thc peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of "recovered" may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.
Establishing a node importance ranking is a problem that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. For unweighted networks where the edges do not have any attached weight, many proposals have been presented, considering local or global information of the networks. On the contrary, it occurs in undirected edge-weighted networks, where the proposals to address this problem have been more scarce. In this paper, a ranking method of node importance for undirected and edge-weighted is provided, generalizing the measure of line importance (DIL) based on the centrality degree proposed by Opsahl. The experimentation was done on five real networks and the results illustrate the benefits of our proposal.
La participación social en salud se relaciona con la capacidad de intervención de los colectivos en el sistema sanitario. Desde la bioética, se ha enfatizado en la relevancia de la participación social en salud debido a los efectos positivos a nivel de los grupos sociales, de la estructura sanitaria y de los sistemas políticos democráticos. Para asegurar la participación social en salud, la bioética aboga por la incorporación de la deliberación como herramienta para la toma de decisiones vinculantes. El objetivo del presente ensayo es reflexionar sobre la participación social en la historia del sistema de salud de Chile desde la óptica de la bioética. Las principales reflexiones indican que la participación es de tipo consultiva, sin deliberación y, por tanto, sin distribución de poder. Asimismo, la participación social fue resignificada por la etiqueta de “ciudadana”, potenciando el carácter instrumental, individual y clientelar en salud. Para subvertir esta situación, se requiere incluir reflexiones bioéticas en la estructura sanitaria con el propósito que las comunidades puedan incidir de manera consistente en el sistema de salud.
Among the diverse and important applications that networks currently have is the modeling of infectious diseases. Immunization, or the process of protecting nodes in the network, plays a key role in stopping diseases from spreading. Hence the importance of having tools or strategies that allow the solving of this challenge. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the DIL-W ranking in immunizing nodes in an edge-weighted network with 3866 nodes and 6,841,470 edges. The network is obtained from a real database and the spread of COVID-19 was modeled with the classic SIR model. We apply the protection to the network, according to the importance ranking list produced by DIL-W, considering different protection budgets. Furthermore, we consider three different values for ; in this way, we compare how the protection performs according to the value of .
Epivigila is a Chilean integrated epidemiological surveillance system with more than 17,000,000 Chilean patient records, making it an essential and unique source of information for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile. Nevertheless, given the extensive volume of data controlled by Epivigila, it is difficult for health professionals to classify vast volumes of data to determine which symptoms and comorbidities are related to infected patients. This paper aims to compare machine learning techniques (such as support-vector machine, decision tree and random forest techniques) to determine whether a patient has COVID-19 or not based on the symptoms and comorbidities reported by Epivigila. From the group of patients with COVID-19, we selected a sample of 10% confirmed patients to execute and evaluate the techniques. We used precision, recall, accuracy, -score, and AUC to compare the techniques. The results suggest that the support-vector machine performs better than decision tree and random forest regarding the recall, accuracy, -score, and AUC. Machine learning techniques help process and classify large volumes of data more efficiently and effectively, speeding up healthcare decision making.