Since the droughts of the 1970s–1980s, populations in the Sahel region have opted for a mass exodus to more humid urban or rural centers. Migrations or exoduses have accelerated in recent decades due to environmental degradation and unfavorable climatic conditions. Insufficient harvests are the main reason for migration for the majority of migrants in the Sahelian areas. Migration is a major adaptation strategy to cope with extreme climatic conditions, thus requiring quantification in the destination area. The aim of this paper is to propose a metapopulation model to approximate reality by identifying the transition from one socioeconomic vulnerability group to another, from a less favorable area to favorable area in terms of natural resources, depending on the strategies, policies, and climate variability. The model was used to analyze the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability to study the impact of migration on the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability. The developed mathematical model was analyzed. Up to 2050, simulations applied to the Tougou village in northern Burkina Faso show that migration has a positive impact on the socioeconomic vulnerability of the destination area, thereby reducing the vulnerability of the population by 10% when resources are increased by up to 30%.

Accurately capturing rainfall patterns is crucial for hydrometeorological applications, particularly in regions like Burkina Faso, West Africa, where rainfall variability significantly impacts water resources and agricultural productivity. However, challenges remain in identifying the most reliable rainfall products for such purposes. This research evaluates the effectiveness of satellite precipitation products (SPPs) and soil moisture-derived rainfall products (SM2RPPs) in representing rainfall patterns in Burkina Faso. Results show that SPPs generally perform better than SM2RPPs across daily to annual timescales. An analysis of total bias components highlights that hit biases dominate but are more pronounced in SM2RPPs. Systematic errors contribute significantly to these hit biases, indicating the potential for improvement through bias correction. Wavelet analysis reveals that both SPPs and SM2RPPs capture seasonal and annual rainfall variability effectively. However, all products exhibit limitations in accurately representing extreme rainfall indices, although SPPs demonstrate superior performance compared to SM2RPPs. While SM2RPPs currently underperform relative to SPPs in Burkina Faso, they show promise for hydrometeorological applications and could achieve comparable or improved results with enhanced bias correction techniques.

The Central Sahel region faces an escalating terrorism crisis involving complex interactions between violent extremism and population displacement, compounded by climatic vulnerabilities affecting marginalized communities. This study develops a compartmental ordinary differential equation model capturing interactions between susceptible populations, active terrorist networks, and internally displaced persons, analyzed through stability analysis, bifurcation theory, and Sobol's global sensitivity analysis via extensive numerical simulations. The mathematical framework demonstrates well-posed structure with established existence and uniqueness properties, revealing that military interventions alone contribute less than twenty percent to sustainable terrorism reduction, while integrated approaches combining radicalization prevention and de-radicalization programs achieve over eighty percent effectiveness. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ emerges as a critical threshold parameter with transcritical bifurcation at $\mathcal{R}_0 = 1$ delineating terrorism elimination from endemic persistence regimes, and time-dependent sensitivity analysis indicates optimal strategies require adaptive approaches transitioning from prevention focused early interventions to sustained rehabilitation programs. These findings provide quantitative support for counter-terrorism frameworks prioritizing socioeconomic development over purely military solutions, offering a pathway to sustainable stability in the Sahel.