Renewable energy (RE) utilization is expected to increase in the coming years due to its decreasing costs and the mounting socio-political pressure to decarbonize the world’s energy systems. On the other hand, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are on track to hit the target 100 USD/kWh price in the next decade due to economy of scale and manufacturing process improvements, evident in the rise in Li-ion gigafactories. The forecast of RE and Li-ion technology costs is important for planning RE integration into existing energy systems. Previous cost predictions on Li-ion batteries were conducted using conventional learning curve models based on a single factor, such as either installed capacity or innovation activity. A two-stage learning curve model was recently investigated wherein mineral costs were taken as a factor for material cost to set the floor price, and material cost was a major factor for the battery pack price. However, these models resulted in the overestimation of future prices. In this work, the future prices of Li-ion nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery packs - a battery chemistry of choice in the electric vehicle and stationary grid storage markets - were projected up to year 2025 using multi-factor learning curve models. Among the generated models, the two-factor learning curve model has the most realistic and statistically sound results having learning rates of 21.18% for battery demand and 3.0% for innovation. By year 2024, the projected price would fall below the 100 USD/kWh industry benchmark battery pack price, consistent with most market research predictions. Techno-economic case studies on the microgrid applications of the forecasted prices of Li-ion NMC batteries were conducted. Results showed that the decrease in future prices of Li-ion NMC batteries would make 2020 and 2023 the best years to start investing in an optimum (solar photovoltaic + wind + diesel generator + Li-ion NMC) and 100% RE (solar photovoltaic + wind + Li-ion NMC) off-grid energy system, respectively. A hybrid grid-tied (solar photovoltaic + grid + Li-ion NMC) configuration is the best grid-tied energy system under the current net metering policy, with 2020 being the best year to deploy the investment.

Freshwater in off-grid islands is sourced from rain, groundwater, or mainland imports, which are unreliable, limited, and expensive, respectively. Sustainable freshwater generation from desalination of abundant seawater is another alternative worth exploring. Model-based techno-economic simulations have focused on reverse osmosis desalination due to its low energy consumption and decreasing costs. However, reverse osmosis requires frequent and costly membrane replacement. Other desalination technologies have advantages such as less stringent feedwater requirements, but detailed studies are yet to be done. In this work, a techno-economic comparison of multi-effect distillation, multi-stage flash, mechanical vapor compression, and reverse osmosis coupled with solar photovoltaic-lithium ion-diesel hybrid system was performed by comparing power flows to study the interaction between energy and desalination components. Optimization with projected costs were then performed to investigate future trends. Lastly, we used stochastic generation and demand profiles to infer uncertainties in energy and desalination unit sizing. Reverse osmosis is favorable due to low energy and water costs, as well as possible compatibility with renewable energy systems. Multi-effect distillation and multi-stage flash may also be advantageous for low-risk applications due to system robustness.

Philippine off-grid islands are mostly electrified by diesel generators, resulting in costly electricity that is interrupted by fuel supply disruptions. The archipelagic nature of the country also impedes off-grid electrification due to the high capital cost of grid extension. Transitioning from diesel-only systems to hybrid renewable energy systems and interconnecting the island microgrids can solve these problems while promoting cleaner energy production. In this work, a comparative study on decentralized and clustered hybrid renewable energy system microgrids in the Polillo group of islands in the Philippines, using HOMER Pro, was performed. Microgrids comprising solar photovoltaics, lithium-ion battery energy storage, and diesel generators were designed on each island. Clustered systems encompassing multiple islands in the island group were simulated by also considering the least-cost interconnection paths. The techno-economics of each decentralized or clustered system and the four-island system were evaluated based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Reliability was assessed using the change in LCOE upon the failure of a component and during weather disturbances. Transitioning from diesel-only systems to hybrid systems reduces generation costs by an average of 42.01% and increases the renewable energy share to 80%. Interconnecting the hybrid systems results in an average increase of 2.34% in generation costs due to the cost of submarine cables but improves system reliability and reduces the optimum solar photovoltaic and lithium-ion storage installations by 6.66% and 8.71%, respectively. This research serves as a framework for the interconnection pre-feasibility analysis of other small off-grid islands.

Universal access to electricity is beneficial for the socio-economic development of a country and the development of smart communities. Unfortunately, the electrification of remote off-grid areas, especially in developing countries, is rather slow due to geographic and economic barriers. In the Philippines, specifically, many electrified off-grid areas are underserved, with access to electricity being limited to only a few hours a day. This is mainly due to the high dependence on diesel power plants (DPPs) for electrifying these areas. To address these problems, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) have been considered good electrification alternatives and have been extensively studied for their techno-economic and financial feasibility for Philippine off-grid islands. In this work, articles published from 2012 to 2023 focusing on off-grid Philippine rural electrification were reviewed and classified based on their topic. The taxonomical analysis of collected studies shows that there is a saturation of works focusing on the technical and economic aspects of off-grid electrification. Meanwhile, studies focusing on environmental and socio-political factors affecting HRES off-grid electrification are lagging. A bibliographic analysis of the reviewed articles also showed that there is still a lack of a holistic approach in studying off-grid electrification in the Philippines. There are only a few works that extend beyond the typical techno-economic study. Research works focusing on environmental and socio-political factors are also mainly isolated and do not cross over with technical papers. The gap between topic clusters should be addressed in future works on off-grid electrification.